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| #30654 (Received by flhurricane at: 10:54 AM 07.Jul.2005) TCDAT4 HURRICANE DENNIS DISCUSSION NUMBER 12 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 11 AM EDT THU JUL 07 2005 FIXES FROM RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT AND SATELLITE INDICATE THAT THE MOTION HAS BEEN MORE NORTHWESTWARD THAN WEST-NORTHWESTWARD. THE MID-TROPOSPHERIC RIDGE TO THE NORTH OF DENNIS IS APPARENTLY WEAKER THAN EARLIER PREDICTED. THIS MAY IN PART BE A RESULT OF ADDITIONAL STEERING FLOW INFORMATION OBTAINED FROM THE NOAA G-IV JET SURVEILLANCE MISSION LAST NIGHT. CONSEQUENTLY...SOME OF THE TRACK GUIDANCE...IN PARTICULAR THE GFDL AND GFS MODELS...HAVE SHIFTED TO THE RIGHT OF THEIR EARLIER SOLUTIONS. THIS NECESSITATES AN EASTWARD ADJUSTMENT OF THE OFFICIAL TRACK. ADDITIONALLY...THE AIRCRAFT DATA SHOW THAT DENNIS HAS STRENGTHENED AND THAT THE WIND FIELD HAS EXPANDED...ESPECIALLY TO THE NORTHEAST. THE NEW TRACK AND WIND FIELD FORECAST REQUIRES THE ISSUANCE OF WATCHES FOR EXTREME SOUTHERN FLORIDA AT THIS TIME. RECON FOUND A RATHER LARGE AREA OF WINDS NEAR 100 KT AT THE 700 MB FLIGHT-LEVEL. THIS SUPPORTS A CURRENT INTENSITY OF ABOUT 90 KT. THE CLOUD PATTERN IS WELL-ORGANIZED AND THE EYE IS STARTING TO BECOME APPARENT ON VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGES. THE OFFICIAL INTENSITY FORECAST SHOWS DENNIS BECOMING A MAJOR HURRICANE WITHIN 24 HOURS. THEREAFTER...THE ONLY OBVIOUS POTENTIAL HINDRANCE TO CONTINUED STRENGTHENING IS THE INTERACTION WITH THE LANDMASS OF CUBA. SINCE THE MAGNITUDE OF THE EFFECT OF LAND DEPENDS ON THE DETAILS OF THE TRACK...THE FORECAST IS A BLEND OF BOTH SHIPS AND DECAY SHIPS. HOWEVER...IF DENNIS REMAINS MOSTLY OVER WATER IT COULD EASILY STRENGTHEN MORE THAN INDICATED HERE. HURRICANE WATCHES AND WARNINGS FOR CUBA HAVE BEEN EXTENDED WESTWARD. FORECASTER PASCH/KNABB FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INITIAL 07/1500Z 18.0N 75.6W 90 KT 12HR VT 08/0000Z 19.3N 77.3W 95 KT 24HR VT 08/1200Z 21.3N 79.8W 100 KT 36HR VT 09/0000Z 22.8N 81.8W 90 KT...INLAND 48HR VT 09/1200Z 24.7N 83.5W 105 KT 72HR VT 10/1200Z 28.7N 86.2W 105 KT 96HR VT 11/1200Z 33.5N 88.5W 30 KT...INLAND 120HR VT 12/1200Z 37.5N 90.0W 20 KT...INLAND |
