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| #306669 (Received by flhurricane at: 9:58 AM 07.Nov.2009) TCMAT1 TROPICAL STORM IDA FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 13 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL112009 1500 UTC SAT NOV 07 2009 AT 10 AM EST...1500 UTC...THE GOVERNMENT OF MEXICO HAS ISSUED A HURRICANE WATCH FOR THE YUCATAN PENINSULA FROM TULUM TO CABO CATOCHE. A HURRICANE WATCH MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...GENERALLY WITHIN 36 HOURS. A TROPICAL STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR GRAND CAYMAN ISLAND. AT 10 AM EST...1500 UTC...THE GOVERNMENT OF MEXICO HAS ISSUED A TROPICAL STORM WARNING FOR THE YUCATAN PENINSULA FROM PUNTA ALLEN NORTHWARD TO SAN FELIPE. A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED WITHIN THE WARNING AREA... GENERALLY WITHIN 24 HOURS. AT 10 AM EST...1500 UTC...THE GOVERNMENT OF CUBA HAS ISSUED A TROPICAL STORM WARNING FOR THE PROVINCE OF PINAR DEL RIO. THE GOVERNMENT OF CUBA HAS ALSO ISSUED A TROPICAL STORM WATCH FOR THE ISLE OF YOUTH. INTERESTS ELSEWHERE IN THE YUCATAN PENINSULA OF MEXICO...WESTERN CUBA AND THE CAYMAN ISLANDS SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF IDA. TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 17.9N 84.1W AT 07/1500Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTH OR 355 DEGREES AT 8 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 997 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 50 KT WITH GUSTS TO 60 KT. 34 KT....... 90NE 30SE 15SW 90NW. 12 FT SEAS.. 30NE 30SE 15SW 15NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 17.9N 84.1W AT 07/1500Z AT 07/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 17.4N 84.1W FORECAST VALID 08/0000Z 18.9N 84.6W MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT. 50 KT... 30NE 0SE 0SW 30NW. 34 KT...120NE 45SE 15SW 120NW. FORECAST VALID 08/1200Z 20.3N 85.5W MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT. 50 KT... 45NE 20SE 0SW 45NW. 34 KT...150NE 60SE 30SW 150NW. FORECAST VALID 09/0000Z 22.2N 86.8W MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT. 50 KT... 45NE 20SE 0SW 45NW. 34 KT...150NE 60SE 30SW 150NW. FORECAST VALID 09/1200Z 24.6N 88.0W MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT. 34 KT...175NE 90SE 45SW 150NW. FORECAST VALID 10/1200Z 28.5N 88.0W...EXTRATROPICAL MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT. 34 KT...175NE 90SE 45SW 125NW. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 225 NM ON DAY 4 AND 300 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 11/1200Z 29.0N 86.5W...EXTRATROPICAL MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 12/1200Z 28.0N 85.0W...EXTRATROPICAL MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT. REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 17.9N 84.1W NEXT ADVISORY AT 07/2100Z $$ FORECASTER BROWN/CANGIALOSI/BLAKE |
