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| #306804 (Received by flhurricane at: 2:17 AM 08.Nov.2009) TCDAT1 HURRICANE IDA SPECIAL DISCUSSION NUMBER 16 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL112009 115 AM CST SUN NOV 08 2009 THIS SPECIAL ADVISORY IS BEING ISSUED TO ADJUST THE SHORT-TERM INTENSITY AND TRACK FORECAST OF IDA. BASED ON THE OBSERVED INTENSIFICATION OF THE SYSTEM IN THE LAST FEW HOURS...THE INTENSITY FORECAST IS RAISED TO 85 KT AT 12 AND 24 HOURS...WITH THE POSSIBILITY THAT IDA COULD GET A LITTLE STRONGER THAN THAT SOMETIME TODAY. BEYOND 36 HOURS...THE INTENSITY FORECAST IS UNCHANGED FROM THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY. BASED ON THE AIRCRAFT RECONNAISSANCE FIX AROUND 0600 UTC...WHICH WAS ABOUT A HALF A DEGREE TO THE WEST OF THE FORECAST TRACK...THE TRACK FORECAST HAS BEEN ADJUSTED WESTWARD THROUGH 24 HOURS...INCREASING THE LIKELIHOOD THAT HURRICANE-FORCE WINDS COULD IMPACT THE NORTHEASTERN YUCATAN PENINSULA. THIS NECESSITATES THE ISSUANCE OF A HURRICANE WARNING FOR A PORTION OF THE YUCATAN PENINSULA AT THIS TIME. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INITIAL 08/0715Z 20.2N 85.4W 80 KT 12HR VT 08/1200Z 21.1N 85.7W 85 KT 24HR VT 09/0000Z 22.8N 87.1W 85 KT 36HR VT 09/1200Z 25.4N 87.6W 75 KT 48HR VT 10/0000Z 27.7N 87.9W 60 KT 72HR VT 11/0000Z 30.0N 86.5W 45 KT...EXTRATROPICAL 96HR VT 12/0000Z 29.0N 85.5W 35 KT...EXTRATROPICAL 120HR VT 13/0000Z...DISSIPATED $$ FORECASTER BRENNAN/KIMBERLAIN |
