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| #306977 (Received by flhurricane at: 6:55 PM 08.Nov.2009) TCPAT1 BULLETIN HURRICANE IDA INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER 20A NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL112009 600 PM CST SUN NOV 08 2009 ...IDA SLIGHTLY STRONGER... A HURRICANE WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE NORTHERN GULF COAST FROM GRAND ISLE LOUISIANA TO MEXICO BEACH FLORIDA. THIS WATCH DOES NOT INCLUDE THE CITY OF NEW ORLEANS. A HURRICANE WATCH MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...GENERALLY WITHIN 36 HOURS. AT 600 PM CST...0000 UTC...THE GOVERNMENT OF MEXICO HAS DISCONTINUED ALL WATCHES AND WARNINGS FOR MEXICO. A TROPICAL STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE CUBAN PROVINCE OF PINAR DEL RIO. A TROPICAL STORM WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE ISLE OF YOUTH. INTERESTS ELSEWHERE ALONG THE NORTHERN COAST OF THE GULF OF MEXICO SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF IDA. ADDITIONAL TROPICAL CYCLONE WATCHES OR WARNINGS MAY BE REQUIRED TONIGHT OR MONDAY. FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA IN THE UNITED STATES...INCLUDING POSSIBLE INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR LOCAL NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORECAST OFFICE. FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA OUTSIDE OF THE UNITED STATES...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR NATIONAL METEOROLOGICAL SERVICE. AT 600 PM CST...0000 UTC...THE CENTER OF HURRICANE IDA WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 23.1 NORTH...LONGITUDE 86.5 WEST OR ABOUT 140 MILES... 225 KM...WEST-NORTHWEST OF THE WESTERN TIP OF CUBA AND ABOUT 445 MILES...720 KM...SOUTH-SOUTHEAST OF THE MOUTH OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER. IDA IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHWEST NEAR 12 MPH...19 KM/HR. A GRADUAL TURN TOWARD THE NORTH AND AN INCREASE IN FORWARD SPEED ARE EXPECTED DURING THE NEXT 24 TO 36 HOURS. ON THE FORECAST TRACK... IDA IS EXPECTED TO CROSS THE GULF OF MEXICO TONIGHT AND MONDAY... AND BE NEAR THE NORTHERN GULF COAST MONDAY NIGHT OR EARLY TUESDAY. REPORTS FROM AN AIR FORCE RESERVE HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT INDICATE THAT THE MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS HAVE INCREASED TO NEAR 105 MPH... 165 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER GUSTS. IDA IS A CATEGORY TWO HURRICANE ON THE SAFFIR-SIMPSON SCALE. LITTLE CHANGE IN STRENGTH IS EXPECTED TONIGHT...AND IDA IS FORECAST TO GRADUALLY WEAKEN ON MONDAY. HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 35 MILES...55 KM...FROM THE CENTER...AND TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 140 MILES...220 KM. THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE FROM AIRCRAFT DATA IS 979 MB...28.91 INCHES. IDA IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE TOTAL RAIN ACCUMULATIONS OF 3 TO 5 INCHES OVER PORTIONS OF WESTERN CUBA...WITH POSSIBLE ISOLATED MAXIMUM AMOUNTS OF 10 INCHES. RAINS WILL BE INCREASING WELL IN ADVANCE OF IDA ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN GULF COAST...BUT WILL BECOME STEADIER AND HEAVIER BY MONDAY INTO TUESDAY. TOTAL STORM ACCUMULATIONS OF 3 TO 5 INCHES WITH ISOLATED MAXIMUM STORM TOTALS OF 8 INCHES WILL BE POSSIBLE THROUGH TUESDAY FROM THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN GULF COAST NORTHWARD INTO THE EASTERN PORTIONS OF THE TENNESSEE VALLEY AND THE SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS. ...SUMMARY OF 600 PM CST INFORMATION... LOCATION...23.1N 86.5W MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...105 MPH PRESENT MOVEMENT...NORTH-NORTHWEST OR 340 DEGREES AT 12 MPH MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...979 MB THE NEXT ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER AT 900 PM CST. $$ FORECASTER BROWN/BERG |
