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| #30751 (Received by flhurricane at: 4:55 PM 07.Jul.2005) TCDAT4 HURRICANE DENNIS DISCUSSION NUMBER 13 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 5 PM EDT THU JUL 07 2005 LATEST DATA FROM THE AIR FORCE HURRICANE HUNTERS SHOW THAT THE CENTRAL PRESSURE HAS BEEN FALLING AT SLIGHTLY OVER 1 MB PER HOUR SINCE EARLY THIS MORNING. THE EYE HAS SHRUNK TO ABOUT 9 N MI DIAMETER AND THE EYEWALL IS NOW CLOSED. ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS REMAIN QUITE FAVORABLE FOR STRENGTHENING AND THE OFFICIAL FORECAST SHOWS A BORDERLINE CATEGORY 4 HURRICANE IN 12 HOURS. DENNIS IS EXPECTED TO WEAKEN SOMEWHAT OVER CUBA...BUT IT SHOULD REGAIN STRENGTH WHEN IT EMERGES OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN GULF OF MEXICO. ALTHOUGH THE WIND SHEAR MAY BECOME LESS FAVORABLE FOR INTENSIFICATION OVER THE NORTHEAST GULF OF MEXICO...THE OFFICIAL FORECAST MAINTAINS DENNIS AS A MAJOR HURRICANE UP TO LANDFALL IN THAT AREA. THE MOTION CONTINUES TOWARD THE NORTHWEST...310/13. THIS MOTION SHOULD TAKE THE CENTER OF THIS DANGEROUS HURRICANE OVER CENTRAL CUBA WITHIN 24 HOURS. DENNIS IS THEN EXPECTED TO MOVE AROUND THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF A SUBTROPICAL RIDGE. ALTHOUGH THIS SOUNDS SIMPLE ENOUGH...THE DETAILS OF THE TURN AROUND THE RIDGE ARE IMPORTANT FOR RESIDENTS OF FLORIDA. IN THE LATEST MODEL RUNS...THE GFS HAS SHIFTED A LITTLE FARTHER EAST AND IS NOW VERY CLOSE TO THE GFDL TRACK. THESE TWO MODELS ARE THE EASTERNMOST OF THE DYNAMICAL SUITE. THE U.K. MET. OFFICE MODEL REMAINS WELL WEST OF ALMOST ALL OTHER GUIDANCE. OUR FORECAST IS ADJUSTED ONLY SLIGHTLY TO THE EAST AND IS VERY CLOSE TO BOTH THE SIMPLE DYNAMICAL CONSENSUS TRACK... CONU...AND TO THE FSU SUPERENSEMBLE. A HURRICANE WARNING IS NOW POSTED FOR THE LOWER FLORIDA KEYS SINCE TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS COULD REACH THOSE ISLANDS BY TOMORROW AFTERNOON. FORECASTER PASCH FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INITIAL 07/2100Z 19.0N 76.6W 100 KT 12HR VT 08/0600Z 20.4N 78.4W 115 KT 24HR VT 08/1800Z 22.3N 80.5W 95 KT...INLAND 36HR VT 09/0600Z 24.2N 82.5W 100 KT 48HR VT 09/1800Z 26.0N 84.0W 105 KT 72HR VT 10/1800Z 30.0N 86.5W 105 KT 96HR VT 11/1800Z 35.0N 88.0W 30 KT...INLAND 120HR VT 12/1800Z 38.0N 87.5W 20 KT...INLAND |
