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#30954 (Received by flhurricane at: 10:37 AM 08.Jul.2005)
TCMAT4
HURRICANE DENNIS FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 16
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL042005
1500Z FRI JUL 08 2005

A HURRICANE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR CUBA FOR THE PROVINCES OF LA
HABANA...CIUDAD DE LA HABANA...MATANZAS...VILLA CLARA...
CIENFUEGOS...SANCTI SPIRITUS...CIEGO DE AVILA...CAMAGUEY...LAS
TUNAS...GRANMA...SANTIAGO DE CUBA...HOLGUIN AND GUANTANAMO. A
HURRICANE WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE ISLE OF YOUTH AND THE
PROVINCE OF PINAR DEL RIO.

A HURRICANE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR THE LOWER FLORIDA KEYS
FROM THE SEVEN MILE BRIDGE WESTWARD TO THE DRY TORTUGAS. A
TROPICAL STORM WARNING AND A HURRICANE WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR THE
REMAINDER OF THE FLORIDA KEYS...EAST OF THE SEVEN MILE BRIDGE TO
OCEAN REEF AND FLORIDA BAY.

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR CAYMAN BRAC AND LITTLE
CAYMAN ISLAND.

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS ALSO IN EFFECT ALONG THE FLORIDA WEST
COAST SOUTH OF BONITA BEACH...AND ALONG THE FLORIDA EAST COAST
SOUTH OF GOLDEN BEACH. A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT ALONG
THE FLORIDA WEST COAST NORTH OF BONITA BEACH TO LONGBOAT KEY.

A HURRICANE OR TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT HURRICANE OR
TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS...RESPECTIVELY...ARE EXPECTED WITHIN THE
WARNING AREA WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS. PREPARATIONS TO PROTECT LIFE
AND PROPERTY SHOULD BE RUSHED TO COMPLETION IN THE HURRICANE
WARNING AREA. A HURRICANE OR TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT
HURRICANE OR TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS...RESPECTIVELY...ARE
POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...GENERALLY WITHIN 36 HOURS.

INTERESTS ELSEWHERE IN THE WESTERN CARIBBEAN SEA...FLORIDA...AND THE
EASTERN GULF OF MEXICO SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF THIS SYSTEM.

HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 21.4N 79.9W AT 08/1500Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 15 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTHWEST OR 310 DEGREES AT 13 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 938 MB
EYE DIAMETER 15 NM
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 130 KT WITH GUSTS TO 160 KT.
64 KT....... 45NE 30SE 20SW 30NW.
50 KT....... 75NE 75SE 25SW 50NW.
34 KT.......140NE 120SE 75SW 100NW.
12 FT SEAS..150NE 150SE 80SW 100NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 21.4N 79.9W AT 08/1500Z
AT 08/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 20.9N 79.5W

FORECAST VALID 09/0000Z 22.7N 81.7W...INLAND
MAX WIND 110 KT...GUSTS 135 KT.
64 KT... 45NE 30SE 20SW 30NW.
50 KT... 75NE 75SE 25SW 50NW.
34 KT...140NE 120SE 75SW 100NW.

FORECAST VALID 09/1200Z 24.5N 83.6W...OVER SOUTHEAST GULF OF MEXICO
MAX WIND 115 KT...GUSTS 140 KT.
64 KT... 50NE 40SE 30SW 40NW.
50 KT... 80NE 80SE 40SW 60NW.
34 KT...140NE 120SE 80SW 110NW.

FORECAST VALID 10/0000Z 26.5N 85.0W
MAX WIND 115 KT...GUSTS 140 KT.
64 KT... 50NE 40SE 30SW 40NW.
50 KT... 80NE 80SE 40SW 60NW.
34 KT...140NE 130SE 90SW 120NW.

FORECAST VALID 10/1200Z 28.4N 86.2W
MAX WIND 115 KT...GUSTS 140 KT.
50 KT... 80NE 80SE 50SW 70NW.
34 KT...140NE 130SE 100SW 140NW.

FORECAST VALID 11/1200Z 32.6N 88.3W...INLAND
MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT.
50 KT... 40NE 40SE 20SW 30NW.
34 KT...100NE 100SE 50SW 140NW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 250 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 325 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 12/1200Z 37.0N 88.6W...DISSIPATING INLAND
MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT.

OUTLOOK VALID 13/1200Z 39.5N 84.8W...REMNANT LOW INLAND
MAX WIND 20 KT...GUSTS 25 KT.

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 21.4N 79.9W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 08/2100Z

FORECASTER STEWART