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| #30963 (Received by flhurricane at: 10:58 AM 08.Jul.2005) TCDAT4 HURRICANE DENNIS DISCUSSION NUMBER 16 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 11 AM EDT FRI JUL 08 2005 AIR FORCE RESERVE HURRICANE HUNTERS REPORTED A 700 MB FLIGHT-LEVEL WIND OF 150 KT IN THE NORTHEAST QUADRANT AND A CENTRAL PRESSURE OF 938 MB. WHILE THE 150 KT EQUATES TO A 135-KT SURFACE WIND...OR NEAR CAT 5 INTENSITY...THE CENTRAL PRESSURE ONLY SUPPORTS ABOUT 125 KT. THE INITIAL INTENSITY OF 130 KT IS A BLEND OF THESE TWO VALUES. THE EYE REMAINS DISTINCT IN SATELLITE IMAGERY AND RADAR DATA FROM CUBA. THE LATEST RADAR DATA ALSO SUGGESTS THAT DENNIS MAY BE STARTING AN EYEWALL REPLACEMENT CYCLE...WHICH WOULD SUGGEST THAT DENNIS HAS LIKELY PEAKED IN INTENSITY. THE INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATES IS 310/13. DENNIS HAS BEEN WOBBLING QUITE A BIT THE PAST 6 HOURS...AND HAS MADE A WOBBLE MORE NORTHWESTWARD THAN THE WESTWARD MOTION OF 6 HOURS AGO. THIS TYPE OF MOTION IS NOT UNUSUAL FOR INTENSIFYING MAJOR HURRICANES. THERE MAY BE SOME ADDITIONAL ERRATIC MOTION AS THE CENTER MOVES ACROSS CUBA...BUT THE GENERAL TREND SHOULD BE FOR A NORTHWESTWARD MOTION TO CONTINUE. THE NHC MODEL GUIDANCE REMAINS TIGHTLY CLUSTERED ABOUT THIS GENERAL MOTION FOR THE NEXT 36 HOURS. AFTER THAT...THE GUIDANCE DIVERGES WITH U.S. LANDFALL INDICATED FROM THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE TO SOUTHEASTERN LOUISIANA. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST TRACK WAS ADJUSTED ONLY SLIGHTLY TO THE RIGHT OF THE PREVIOUS TRACK AND LEANS MORE TOWARD THE GFS...NAM...AND THE BAM MODEL SOLUTIONS... WHICH ARE ON THE EASTERN EDGE OF THE GUIDANCE ENVELOPE. THIS IS BECAUSE THE GFS AND NAM ANALYSES APPEAR TO HAVE A BETTER HANDLE ON THE DEVELOPING MID-LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE SOUTH-CENTRAL GULF STATES. DENNIS WILL WEAKEN A LITTLE OVER CUBA...BUT IS STILL EXPECTED TO EMERGE INTO THE SOUTHEASTERN GULF OF MEXICO AS A MAJOR HURRICANE. DENNIS IS EXPECTED TO MAKE U.S. LANDFALL AS A MAJOR HURRICANE. NO CHANGES TO THE U.S. WATCHES OR WARNINGS ARE REQUIRED AT THIS TIME. FORECASTER STEWART FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INITIAL 08/1500Z 21.4N 79.9W 130 KT 12HR VT 09/0000Z 22.7N 81.7W 110 KT...INLAND 24HR VT 09/1200Z 24.5N 83.6W 115 KT...OVER SOUTHEAST GULF 36HR VT 10/0000Z 26.5N 85.0W 115 KT 48HR VT 10/1200Z 28.4N 86.2W 115 KT 72HR VT 11/1200Z 32.6N 88.3W 65 KT...INLAND 96HR VT 12/1200Z 37.0N 88.6W 30 KT...DISSIPATING INLAND 120HR VT 13/1200Z 39.5N 84.8W 20 KT...REMNANT LOW INLAND |
