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#31050 (Received by flhurricane at: 4:49 PM 08.Jul.2005)
TCMAT4
HURRICANE DENNIS FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 17
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL042005
2100Z FRI JUL 08 2005

A HURRICANE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR CUBA FOR THE PROVINCES OF LA
HABANA...CIUDAD DE LA HABANA...MATANZAS...VILLA CLARA...
CIENFUEGOS...SANCTI SPIRITUS...CIEGO DE AVILA...CAMAGUEY...LAS
TUNAS...GRANMA...SANTIAGO DE CUBA...HOLGUIN AND GUANTANAMO. A
HURRICANE WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE ISLE OF YOUTH AND THE
PROVINCE OF PINAR DEL RIO. EASTERN PORTIONS OF THE HURRICANE WARNING
AREA WILL LIKELY BE DISCONTINUED LATER TONIGHT.

A HURRICANE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR THE LOWER FLORIDA KEYS
FROM THE SEVEN MILE BRIDGE WESTWARD TO THE DRY TORTUGAS. A
TROPICAL STORM WARNING AND A HURRICANE WATCH ARE IN EFFECT FOR THE
REMAINDER OF THE FLORIDA KEYS...EAST OF THE SEVEN MILE BRIDGE TO
OCEAN REEF AND FLORIDA BAY.

AT 5 PM EDT...2100Z...A HURRICANE WATCH HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR PORTIONS
OF THE NORTHEASTERN GULF COAST FROM THE STEINHATCHEE RIVER WESTWARD
TO THE MOUTH OF THE PEARL RIVER.

AT 5 PM EDT...THE TROPICAL STORM WARNING ALONG THE FLORIDA WEST
COAST HAS BEEN EXTENDED NORTHWARD TO ANCLOTE KEY. A TROPICAL STORM
WARNING IS NOW IN EFFECT ALONG THE FLORIDA WEST COAST FROM ANCLOTE
KEY SOUTHWARD...AND ALONG THE FLORIDA EAST COAST FROM GOLDEN BEACH
SOUTHWARD.

AT 5 PM EDT...A TROPICAL STORM WATCH HAS BEEN ISSUED ALONG THE
FLORIDA WEST COAST FROM NORTH OF ANCLOTE KEY NORTHWARD TO EAST OF
THE STEINHATCHEE RIVER.

A HURRICANE OR TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT HURRICANE OR
TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS...RESPECTIVELY...ARE EXPECTED WITHIN THE
WARNING AREA WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS. PREPARATIONS TO PROTECT LIFE
AND PROPERTY SHOULD BE RUSHED TO COMPLETION IN THE HURRICANE
WARNING AREA. A HURRICANE OR TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT
HURRICANE OR TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS...RESPECTIVELY...ARE
POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...GENERALLY WITHIN 36 HOURS.

INTERESTS ELSEWHERE IN THE WESTERN CARIBBEAN SEA...FLORIDA...AND THE
EASTERN GULF OF MEXICO SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF THIS SYSTEM.

HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 22.6N 81.1W AT 08/2100Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 15 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTHWEST OR 310 DEGREES AT 15 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 949 MB
EYE DIAMETER 15 NM
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 115 KT WITH GUSTS TO 140 KT.
64 KT....... 55NE 35SE 20SW 30NW.
50 KT....... 90NE 75SE 30SW 55NW.
34 KT.......140NE 140SE 75SW 140NW.
12 FT SEAS..150NE 150SE 75SW 140NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 22.6N 81.1W AT 08/2100Z
AT 08/1800Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 22.1N 80.6W

FORECAST VALID 09/0600Z 23.9N 82.7W
MAX WIND 105 KT...GUSTS 130 KT.
64 KT... 55NE 35SE 20SW 30NW.
50 KT... 90NE 75SE 30SW 55NW.
34 KT...140NE 140SE 75SW 140NW.

FORECAST VALID 09/1800Z 25.7N 84.4W
MAX WIND 110 KT...GUSTS 135 KT.
64 KT... 55NE 35SE 20SW 30NW.
50 KT... 90NE 75SE 30SW 55NW.
34 KT...140NE 140SE 75SW 140NW.

FORECAST VALID 10/0600Z 27.8N 85.6W
MAX WIND 110 KT...GUSTS 135 KT.
64 KT... 55NE 45SE 25SW 35NW.
50 KT... 90NE 80SE 40SW 60NW.
34 KT...150NE 150SE 80SW 150NW.

FORECAST VALID 10/1800Z 30.0N 86.7W
MAX WIND 110 KT...GUSTS 135 KT.
50 KT... 90NE 80SE 40SW 60NW.
34 KT...150NE 150SE 80SW 150NW.

FORECAST VALID 11/1800Z 34.9N 89.5W...INLAND
MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT.
34 KT... 30NE 30SE 0SW 0NW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 250 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 325 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 12/1800Z 38.0N 90.0W...DISSIPATING INLAND
MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT.

OUTLOOK VALID 13/1800Z 39.5N 85.0W...REMNANT LOW INLAND
MAX WIND 20 KT...GUSTS 25 KT.

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 22.6N 81.1W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 09/0300Z

FORECASTER STEWART