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#31054 (Received by flhurricane at: 5:03 PM 08.Jul.2005)
TCDAT4
HURRICANE DENNIS DISCUSSION NUMBER 17
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
5 PM EDT FRI JUL 08 2005

DENNIS IS WELL INLAND OVER CENTRAL CUBA NOW...AND THE LAST RECON
REPORT RIGHT AT LANDFALL NEAR CIENFUEGOS INDICATED THE PRESSURE HAD
RISEN 3 MILLIBARS TO 941 MB. HOWEVER...A WIND GUST TO 149 MPH WAS
MEASURED IN CIENFUEGOS CAUSING EXTENSIVE DAMAGE THERE.

THE INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS 310/15. DENNIS HAS BEEN WOBBLING
ABOUT A MEAN MOTION BETWEEN 310 AND 315 DEGREES THE PAST 12 HOURS
...AND LITTLE CHANGE IN THAT TYPE OF MOTION IS EXPECTED FOR NEXT 24
TO 36 HOURS. UPPER-AIR DATA AT 12Z AND 18Z INDICATE THE MID-LEVEL
SUBTROPICAL RIDGE ACROSS NORTH-CENTRAL FLORIDA HAS CHANGED LITTLE
TODAY. ALSO...UPPER-AIR DATA INDICATE A COLD POOL OF -10C HAS
DEVELOPED OVER NORTHERN LOUSIANA ALONG A 500 MB TROUGH AXIS...WHICH
NONE OF THE MODELS INTIALIZED VERY WELL. THE COLDER AIR ALOFT
SHOULD HELP CREATE A SLIGHTLY STRONGER MID- TO UPPER-LEVEL LOW THAN
THE GLOBAL...GFDL...AND NAM MODELS ARE FORECASTING TO DROP SOUTH OF
LOUSIANA OVER THE NOTHWESTERN GULF. THE RESULT SHOULD BE A DEEP-
LAYER SOUTHEASTERLY STEERING FLOW REMAINING OVER THE EASTERN GULF
OF MEXICO THROUGHOUT THE FORECAST PERIOD. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST
TRACK IS SIMILAR TO THE PREVIOUS TRACK.

DENNIS WILL WEAKEN A LITTLE MORE WHILE OVER CUBA...BUT IS STILL
EXPECTED TO EMERGE OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN GULF OF MEXICO LATER THIS
EVENING AS A MAJOR HURRICANE. HOWQEVER...THE UPPER-LEVEL FLOW IS
EXPECTED TO REMAIN QUITE FAVORABLE FOR DENNIS TO RE-STRENGTHEN...
POSSIBLY TO CATEGORY 4 INTENSITY...ONCE IT REACHES THE 29C SSTS OF
THE SOUTHEASTERN GULF OF MEXICO. AFTER 24 HOURS...DENNIS WILL BE
MOVING OVER SLIGHTLY COOLER WATER...WHICH MAY BRING ABOUT SOME
SLIGHT WEAKENING...BUT THE CYCLONE IS STILL EXPECTED TO MAKE U.S.
LANDFALL AS A MAJOR HURRICANE.

ALL OF THE WIND SPEED RADII...ESPECIALLY IN THE RIGHT SEMICIRCLE...
WERE INCREASED BASED ON RECON DATA.

SOME FACTS ABOUT DENNIS...THE EARLIEST CATEGORY 4 HURRICANE TO
DEVELOP IN THE CARIBBEAN...THE STRONGEST HURRICANE SO EARLY IN THE
YEAR.

FORECASTER STEWART

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INITIAL 08/2100Z 22.6N 81.1W 115 KT...INLAND OVER CUBA
12HR VT 09/0600Z 23.9N 82.7W 105 KT...OVER S.E. GULF
24HR VT 09/1800Z 25.7N 84.4W 110 KT
36HR VT 10/0600Z 27.8N 85.6W 110 KT
48HR VT 10/1800Z 30.0N 86.7W 110 KT
72HR VT 11/1800Z 34.9N 89.5W 35 KT...INLAND
96HR VT 12/1800Z 38.0N 90.0W 25 KT...DISSIPATING INLAND
120HR VT 13/1800Z 39.5N 85.0W 20 KT...REMNANT LOW INLAND