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The 2021 Altantic Hurricane Season Begins June 1st, 2021. 2020 is officially over, but still a 30% chance area lingers.
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#31246 (Received by flhurricane at: 4:49 AM 09.Jul.2005)
TCDAT4
HURRICANE DENNIS DISCUSSION NUMBER 19
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
5 AM EDT SAT JUL 09 2005

DATA FROM A RECONNAISSANCE PLANE INDICATE THAT DENNIS WEAKENED
CONSIDERABLY WHILE MOVING OVER CUBA. THE HURRICANE STILL HAS A 12
NMI EYE AND A MINIMUM PRESSURE OF 972 MB. HOWEVER...THE PLANE HAS
NOT REPORTED ANY WINDS HIGHER THAN 71 KNOTS AT FLIGHT LEVEL.
ASSUMING THAT THE ENTIRE WIND FIELD HAS NOT BEEN SAMPLED...IT IS
ASSUMED THAT THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS 80 KNOTS...AND THIS IS VERY
GENEROUS. SHIPS MODEL IS NO LONGER RE-INTENSIFYING DENNIS BUT THE
GFDL DOES. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST FOLLOWS CONTINUITY AND
RE-STRENGTHENS DENNIS OVER THE GULF BUT THE OFFICIAL INTENSITY
FORECAST MAY HAVE TO BE ADJUSTED DOWNWARD LATER TODAY. NORMALLY...
IT TAKES 12 TO 24 HOURS FOR A CYCLONE TO RECOVER FROM THE EFFECTS
OF LAND...IF AT ALL.

DENNIS IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTHWEST OR 325 DEGREES AT 12 KNOTS.
THE MOTION OF DENNIS IS STILL CONTROLLED MAINLY BY A SUBTROPICAL
RIDGE OVER THE WESTERN ATLANTIC...AND THE HURRICANE IS ALREADY
LOCATED ON THE WESTERN EDGE OF THE RIDGE. THEREFORE...A TURN MORE TO
THE NORTHWEST IS ANTICIPATED. TRACK GUIDANCE IS TIGHTLY CLUSTERED
AND EVEN THE UK MODEL SOLUTION WHICH WAS THE FARTHER WEST HAS
SHIFTED EASTWARD...AND IT IS NOW IN AGREEMENT WITH THE OTHER
GUIDANCE. HAVING ALL THESE MODELS IN GOOD AGREEMENT INCREASES THE
CONFIDENCE IN THE FORECAST.

BECAUSE OF THE CURRENT FORECAST TRACK AND THE EARLY ARRIVAL TO THE
COAST OF THE 34-KNOT WINDS...A HURRICANE WARNING HAS BEEN ISSUED
ACCORDINGLY.

FORECASTER AVILA


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INITIAL 09/0900Z 23.9N 82.9W 80 KT
12HR VT 09/1800Z 25.3N 84.1W 90 KT
24HR VT 10/0600Z 27.5N 85.7W 100 KT
36HR VT 10/1800Z 29.8N 87.1W 110 KT
48HR VT 11/0600Z 32.5N 88.5W 45 KT...INLAND
72HR VT 12/0600Z 36.0N 90.0W 30 KT...INLAND
96HR VT 13/0600Z 38.0N 89.5W 20 KT...INLAND
120HR VT 14/0600Z 39.1N 85.0W 20 KT...INLAND