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#31373 (Received by flhurricane at: 11:03 AM 09.Jul.2005)
TCDAT4
HURRICANE DENNIS DISCUSSION NUMBER 20
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
11 AM EDT SAT JUL 09 2005

SATELLITE...RADAR...AND NOAA RECONNAISSANCE DATA INDICATE DENNIS HAS
SLOWLY BEEN GETTING BETTER ORGANIZED THIS MORNING. THE PRESSURE HAS
BEEN GRADUALLY DECREASING SINCE DENNIS MOVED OFF THE NORTH COAST OF
CUBA...BUT THIS HAS NOT BEEN REFLECTED BY A CORRESPONDING INCREASE
IN FLIGHT-LEVEL WIND SPEEDS. THE EYE HAS BEEN RAGGED LOOKING MOST
OF THIS MORNING IN THE KEY WEST DOPPLER RADAR DATA...ALTHOUGH IT
HAS BECOME SLIGHTLY BETTER DEFINED IN THE LAST HOUR OR SO. THE
INITIAL INTENSITY IS A BLEND OF RECON FLIGHT-LEVEL WINDS...SFMR
DATA...AND SATELLITE INTENSITY ESTIMATES OF 77 KT AND 90 KT FROM
TAFB AND SAB...RESPECTIVELY.

THE INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS 320/12. UPPER-AIR DATA AT 06Z AND
ESPECIALLY AT 12Z...ALONG WITH WATER VAPOR IMAGERY...INDICATE THE
MID- TO UPPER-LEVEL LOW OVER THE EXTREME NORTHWESTERN GULF JUST
SOUTH OF LOUISIANA IS A LITTLE STRONGER THAN AND LARGER THAN ANY OF
THE MODELS WERE INDICATING AT 00Z AND 06Z. THE NOGAPS MODEL DID NOT
CAPTURE THIS FEATURE AT ALL...AND IT AND THE GFDN MODELS ARE THE
ONLY MODELS THAT TAKE DENNIS TOWARD SOUTHEASTERN LOUISIANA. IT
WOULD NOT SURPRISE ME IF THE 12Z MODELS SHIFT SLIGHTLY TO THE RIGHT
GIVEN THAT THE LOW IS STRONGER THAN PREVIOUSLY FORECAST...AND THAT
THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE AXIS HAS CONTINUED TO SHIFT NORTHWARD AND IS
NOW LOCATED ACROSS SOUTHEASTERN GEORGIA TO WESTERN TENNESSEE. THE
OFFICIAL FORECAST IS JUST AN EXTENSION OF THE PREVIOUS TRACK.

DENNIS IS CURRENTLY MOVING OVER A COOL EDDY...BUT IS EXPECTED TO
MOVE BACK OVER WARMER WATER IN 12-18 HOURS. THE UPPER-LEVEL SHEAR
IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN LOW AND THE OUTFLOW PATTERN IS FORECAST TO
REMAIN QUITE IMPRESSIVE. THE SSTS AHEAD OF DENNIS ARE WARM ENOUGH
TO SUPPORT A CATEGORY 3 HURRICANE UP UNTIL LANDFALL...SO THE ONLY
INHIBITING FACTOR IS IF THE INNER-CORE STRUCTURE DOES NOT REGAIN
ITS ORIGINAL STRUCTURE. BUT GIVEN THAT THE EYE DIAMETER IS ONLY
10-15 MILES...IT WOULD NOT TAKE MUCH CONVECTION TO DEVELOP AROUND
THE EYE FOR DENNIS TO MAKE A SIGNIFICANT COMEBACK IN A SHORT PERIOD
OF TIME.

THE 64-KT WIND RADII WERE DECREASED BASED ON RECON DATA.

FORECASTER STEWART

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INITIAL 09/1500Z 24.7N 83.8W 85 KT
12HR VT 10/0000Z 26.4N 85.0W 90 KT
24HR VT 10/1200Z 28.7N 86.4W 95 KT
36HR VT 11/0000Z 31.2N 87.7W 65 KT...INLAND
48HR VT 11/1200Z 33.6N 89.0W 30 KT...DISSIPATING INLAND
72HR VT 12/1200Z 36.5N 89.5W 20 KT...REMNANT LOW INLAND
96HR VT 13/1200Z 38.0N 88.0W 20 KT...REMNANT LOW INLAND
120HR VT 14/1200Z 39.0N 83.5W 20 KT...REMNANT LOW INLAND