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| #31480 (Received by flhurricane at: 5:03 PM 09.Jul.2005) TCDAT4 HURRICANE DENNIS DISCUSSION NUMBER 21 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 5 PM EDT SAT JUL 09 2005 WHAT A DIFFERENCE 6 HOURS MAKES! SATELLITE...RADAR...AND NOAA AND AIR FORCE RECONNAISSANCE DATA INDICATE DENNIS HAS POSSIBLY STARTED A RAPID DEEPENING PHASE. THE EYE HAS BECOME BECOME DEFINED IN BOTH RADAR AND SATELLITE IMAGERY...AND THE PRESSURE IS NOW 955 MB...DOWN ALMOST 10 MB IN THE PAST 6 HOURS. THE WINDS ARE GRADUALLY BEGINNING TO CATCH UP WITH THE PRESSURE FALLS AS INDICATED BY A 700 MB FLIGHT-LEVEL WIND OF 101 KT...EQUAL TO ABOUT A 91 KT SURFACE WIND ...IN THE NORTHEAST QUADRANT. THE INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS 325/12. DENNIS HAS MADE A LARGE WOBBLE TO THE WEST-NORTHWEST IN THE PAST 2 HOURS...BUT THIS IS PROBABLY A TEMPORARY MOTION DUE TO THE DEEP CONVECTION HAVING EXPLODED AND WRAPPED AROUND THE WEST SIDE OF THE EYE. ONCE THE CONVECTIVE PATTERN BECOMES MORE SYMMETRICAL...I EXPECT DENNIS TO RESUME A NORTHWEST MOTION OF 320 TO 325 DEGREES. THE NEW 18Z NHC MODEL GUIDANCE IS MORE CONVERGENT AND IS NOW IN BETTER AGREEMENT ON A TRACK TOWARD THE WESTERN FLORIDA PANHANDLE TO SOUTHERN ALABAMA AREA. THE NOGAPS AND GFDN MODELS HAVE SHIFTED SHARPLY TO THE RIGHT ...OR EAST OF LOUISIANA...AND THE NHC MODEL CONSENSUS HAS ALSO SHIFTED TO THE RIGHT AND CLOSER TO THE PREVIOUS 3 NHC FORECAST TRACKS. AS A RESULT...NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGE WAS MADE TO THE PREVIOUS FORECAST TRACK. THE CENTRAL PRESSURE OF 955 MB NORMALLY WOULD SUPPORT AN INITIAL INTENSITY OF 105-110 KT...BUT THE INNER CORE PRESSURE GRADIENT IS STILL FLAT DUE TO LAND INTERACTION WITH CUBA LAST NIGHT. HOWEVER... THE SMALL 10-15 NMI DIAMETER EYE...RECENT SHARP PRESSURE FALLS... WARM WATER AHEAD OF THE CYCLONE...AND IMPRESSIVE OUTFLOW ALL SUGGEST THAT DENNIS SHOULD GO ON AND INTENSIFY INTO A MAJOR HURRICANE...AND POSSIBLY EVEN REGAIN CATEGORY 4 STRENGTH BEFORE IT MAKES LANDFALL ON SUNDAY. VARIOUS WIND RADII WERE INCREASED BASED ON RECON DATA FORECASTER STEWART FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INITIAL 09/2100Z 25.7N 84.6W 90 KT 12HR VT 10/0600Z 27.5N 85.8W 100 KT 24HR VT 10/1800Z 29.9N 87.2W 110 KT 36HR VT 11/0600Z 32.3N 88.4W 65 KT...INLAND 48HR VT 11/1800Z 34.2N 89.3W 30 KT...DISSIPATING INLAND 72HR VT 12/1800Z 37.0N 89.0W 20 KT...REMNANT LOW INLAND 96HR VT 13/1800Z 38.0N 87.0W 20 KT...REMNANT LOW INLAND 120HR VT 14/1800Z 39.0N 82.0W 20 KT...REMNANT LOW INLAND |
