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#31525 (Received by flhurricane at: 7:03 PM 09.Jul.2005)
TCDAT4
HURRICANE DENNIS SPECIAL DISCUSSION NUMBER 22
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
7 PM EDT SAT JUL 09 2005

WHAT A DIFFERENCE 2 HOURS MAKES! AIR FORCE AND NOAA HURRICANE
HUNTER AIRCRAFT INDICATE THE CENTRAL PRESSURE OF DENNIS DROPPED 11
MB IN AN HOUR AND A HALF. THE MAXIMUM FLIGHT-LEVEL WINDS REPORTED
N OF THE CENTER WERE 105 KT...AND THERE WERE LIKELY STRONGER WINDS
IN THE NORTHEASTERN QUADRANT THAT THE AIRCRAFT DID NOT SAMPLE.
THIS SPECIAL ADVISORY UPGRADES DENNIS TO A 100 KT CATEGORY 3
HURRICANE BASED ON THE AIRCRAFT DATA.

THE TRACK FORECAST IS UNCHANGED FROM THE PREVIOUS PACKAGE. IT IS
UNCLEAR HOW LONG THE CURRENT INTENSIFICATION WILL CONTINUE...BUT
THE INTENSITY FORECAST IS REVISED TO SHOW 12 HR OF RAPID
STRENGTHENING FOLLOWED BY SLOWER STRENGTHENING UNTIL LANDFALL. THE
NEW INTENSITY FORECAST BRINGS DENNIS ASHORE AS A CATEGORY 4
HURRICANE. AFTER-LANDFALL INTENSITIES WERE ALSO INCREASED THROUGH
72 HR TO REFLECT THE INCREASED LANDFALL INTENSITY.

THE NEW PACKAGE ALSO INCLUDES SLIGHT REVISIONS TO THE WIND RADII AND
12 FT SEAS RADII.

FORECASTER BEVEN


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INITIAL 09/2300Z 26.1N 84.9W 100 KT
12HR VT 10/0600Z 27.5N 85.8W 115 KT
24HR VT 10/1800Z 29.9N 87.2W 120 KT
36HR VT 11/0600Z 32.3N 88.4W 75 KT...INLAND
48HR VT 11/1800Z 34.2N 89.3W 35 KT...INLAND
72HR VT 12/1800Z 37.0N 89.0W 25 KT...INLAND DISSIPATING
96HR VT 13/1800Z 38.0N 87.0W 20 KT...INLAND REMNANT LOW
120HR VT 14/1800Z 39.0N 82.0W 20 KT...INLAND REMNANT LOW