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| #32251 (Received by flhurricane at: 4:34 AM 12.Jul.2005) TCDAT5 TROPICAL STORM EMILY DISCUSSION NUMBER 6 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 5 AM EDT TUE JUL 12 2005 THERE HAS NOT BEEN MUCH CHANGE IN THE OVERALL ORGANIZATION OF THE STORM AS PERCEIVED FROM SATELLITE IMAGES. DVORAK INTENSITY ESTIMATES FROM AFWA...TAFB...AND SAB RANGE FROM 35 TO 45 KT...BUT THE CONVECTIVE BANDING FEATURES ARE NOT VERY PROMINENT AT THIS TIME. EMILY'S INTENSITY IS HELD AT 40 KT FOR THIS PACKAGE. THE GLOBAL MODELS ARE FORECASTING AN UPPER-LEVEL ANTICYLONE OVER THE TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE FORECAST PERIOD...AND THIS SCENARIO WOULD APPEAR TO BE FAVORABLE FOR STRENGTHENING. THE OFFICIAL WIND SPEED FORECAST IS SIMILAR TO THAT FROM THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY... ALTHOUGH SHIPS AND THE GFDL MODEL SUGGEST THAT EMILY COULD STRENGTHEN AT A SOMEWHAT FASTER RATE THAN SHOWN HERE. THERE IS CONSIDERABLE SPREAD IN CENTER POSITION ESTIMATES...BUT MY BEST GUESS IS THAT THE STORM IS NOW MOVING AT A SLIGHTLY FASTER FORWARD SPEED...280 AT 13 KT. FOR THE NEXT FEW DAYS...EMILY WILL CONTINUE TO BE STEERED BY THE FLOW ON THE SOUTHERN PERIPHERY OF A SUBTROPICAL RIDGE. DYNAMICAL TRACK GUIDANCE FOR THIS PACKAGE HAS SHIFTED SOUTHWARD SOMEWHAT. THIS SHIFT IS CONSISTENT WITH THE GLOBAL MODEL'S PREDICTION OF THE FORMATION OF A RATHER STRONG MID-TROPOSPHERIC HIGH OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN U.S. LATE IN THE FORECAST PERIOD. THE OFFICIAL TRACK FORECAST IS ADJUSTED SOUTHWARD IN THIS ADVISORY...HOWEVER IT IS NORTH OF THE LATEST CONSENSUS MODEL TRACK. IT IS NOTABLE THAT...WITH EMILY'S FORMATION...THIS IS THE EARLIEST DATE ON RECORD FOR THE FORMATION OF FIVE NAMED CYCLONES. FORECASTER PASCH FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INITIAL 12/0900Z 11.4N 48.6W 40 KT 12HR VT 12/1800Z 12.0N 50.5W 45 KT 24HR VT 13/0600Z 12.9N 53.5W 55 KT 36HR VT 13/1800Z 13.6N 56.4W 65 KT 48HR VT 14/0600Z 14.4N 59.6W 75 KT 72HR VT 15/0600Z 16.5N 66.0W 80 KT 96HR VT 16/0600Z 18.5N 71.5W 85 KT 120HR VT 17/0600Z 20.0N 77.0W 85 KT...INLAND |
