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| #32450 (Received by flhurricane at: 4:37 AM 13.Jul.2005) TCPAT5 BULLETIN TROPICAL STORM EMILY ADVISORY NUMBER 10 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 5 AM AST WED JUL 13 2005 ...OUTER BANDS OF EMILY BEGINNING TO SPREAD OVER THE WINDWARD ISLANDS... AT 5 AM AST...0900Z...THE GOVERNMENT OF BARBADOS HAS DOWNGRADED THE HURRICANE WARNING TO A TROPICAL STORM WARNING FOR BARBADOS. AT 5 AM EDT...0900Z...THE GOVERNMENT OF VENEZUELA HAS ISSUED A TROPICAL STORM WARNING FOR A PORTION OF THE NORTHERN COAST OF VENEZUELA FROM PEDERNALES WESTWARD TO CUMANA...INCLUDING ISLA MARGARITA. A HURRICANE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR TOBAGO...GRENADA... THE GRENADINES... ST. VINCENT...AND ST. LUCIA. A TROPICAL STORM WARNING AND A HURRICANE WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR TRINIDAD. A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR MARTINIQUE. A HURRICANE OR TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT HURRICANE OR TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS...RESPECTIVELY...ARE EXPECTED WITHIN 24 HOURS. A HURRICANE OR TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT HURRICANE OR TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS...RESPECTIVELY...ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN 36 HOURS. FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...INCLUDING POSSIBLE INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE. AT 5 AM AST...0900Z...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM EMILY WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 11.1 NORTH... LONGITUDE 56.3 WEST OR ABOUT 260 MILES... 420 KM... SOUTHEAST OF BARBADOS AND ABOUT 345 MILES... 550 KM...EAST OF TRINIDAD. EMILY IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST NEAR 20 MPH...32 KM/HR...AND A GRADUAL TURN TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST IS EXPECTED DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS. ON THIS TRACK THE CENTER WILL BE NEAR THE WINDWARD ISLANDS LATER TODAY. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 60 MPH... 95 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER GUSTS. SOME STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS...AND EMILY HAS THE POTENTIAL TO BECOME A HURRICANE BEFORE IT REACHES THE WINDWARD ISLANDS. AN AIR FORCE RESERVE UNIT HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT IS SCHEDULED TO INVESTIGATE EMILY THIS MORNING. TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 85 MILES ...140 KM FROM THE CENTER. ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 997 MB...29.44 INCHES. EMILY IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE TOTAL RAIN ACCUMULATIONS OF 3 TO 6 INCHES ACROSS THE WINDWARD ISLANDS AND PORTIONS OF THE NORTH COASTAL AREA OF VENEZUELA...WITH POSSIBLE ISOLATED AMOUNTS OF 12 INCHES OVER MOUNTAINOUS TERRAIN. THESE RAINS COULD PRODUCE LIFE-THREATENING FLASH FLOODS AND MUD SLIDES. COASTAL STORM SURGE FLOODING OF 1 TO 3 FEET ABOVE NORMAL TIDE LEVELS CAN BE EXPECTED NEAR AND TO THE NORTH OF THE PATH OF THE CENTER. REPEATING THE 5 AM AST POSITION...11.1 N... 56.3 W. MOVEMENT TOWARD...WEST NEAR 20 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS... 60 MPH. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE... 997 MB. AN INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER AT 8 AM AST FOLLOWED BY THE NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY AT 11 AM AST. FORECASTER PASCH |
