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| #32498 (Received by flhurricane at: 10:40 AM 13.Jul.2005) TCMAT5 TROPICAL STORM EMILY FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 11 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL052005 1500Z WED JUL 13 2005 AT 11 AM AST...1500Z...THE GOVERNMENT OF VENEZUELA HAS ISSUED A TROPICAL STORM WATCH FROM CUMANA TO CARACAS...INCLUDING THE OFFSHORE ISLANDS NORTH OF THE WATCH AREA. A HURRICANE WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR TOBAGO...GRENADA... THE GRENADINES... ST. VINCENT...AND ST. LUCIA. A TROPICAL STORM WARNING AND A HURRICANE WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR TRINIDAD. A TROPICAL STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE NORTHERN COAST OF VENEZUELA FROM PEDERNALES WESTWARD TO CUMANA...INCLUDING ISLA MARGARITA. A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR MARTINIQUE. INTERESTS ELSEWHERE IN THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF EMILY. A HURRICANE OR TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT HURRICANE OR TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS...RESPECTIVELY...ARE EXPECTED WITHIN 24 HOURS. A HURRICANE OR TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT HURRICANE OR TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS...RESPECTIVELY...ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN 36 HOURS. TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 11.2N 58.1W AT 13/1500Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 20 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST OR 270 DEGREES AT 17 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1003 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 50 KT WITH GUSTS TO 60 KT. 50 KT....... 50NE 60SE 0SW 0NW. 34 KT....... 75NE 80SE 40SW 50NW. 12 FT SEAS..125NE 90SE 60SW 100NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 11.2N 58.1W AT 13/1500Z AT 13/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 11.2N 57.4W FORECAST VALID 14/0000Z 11.5N 60.8W MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT. 50 KT... 40NE 50SE 20SW 20NW. 34 KT... 75NE 75SE 60SW 75NW. FORECAST VALID 14/1200Z 12.4N 64.0W MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT. 64 KT... 20NE 20SE 20SW 20NW. 50 KT... 50NE 40SE 40SW 50NW. 34 KT... 75NE 60SE 60SW 75NW. FORECAST VALID 15/0000Z 13.3N 67.0W MAX WIND 75 KT...GUSTS 90 KT. 64 KT... 20NE 20SE 20SW 20NW. 50 KT... 50NE 40SE 40SW 50NW. 34 KT... 75NE 60SE 60SW 75NW. FORECAST VALID 15/1200Z 14.2N 70.0W MAX WIND 85 KT...GUSTS 105 KT. 50 KT... 60NE 45SE 45SW 60NW. 34 KT... 90NE 75SE 75SW 90NW. FORECAST VALID 16/1200Z 16.0N 76.5W MAX WIND 100 KT...GUSTS 120 KT. 50 KT... 60NE 45SE 45SW 60NW. 34 KT...100NE 75SE 75SW 100NW. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 250 NM ON DAY 4 AND 325 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 17/1200Z 18.0N 82.5W MAX WIND 100 KT...GUSTS 120 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 18/1200Z 19.5N 88.0W...INLAND MAX WIND 95 KT...GUSTS 115 KT. REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 11.2N 58.1W NEXT ADVISORY AT 13/2100Z FORECASTER FRANKLIN |
