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| #3272 (Received by flhurricane at: 10:36 PM 31.Jul.2004) TCDAT1 TROPICAL DEPRESSION ONE DISCUSSION NUMBER 2 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 11 PM EDT SAT JUL 31 2004 AN AIR FORCE PLANE INVESTIGATING THE DEPRESSION HAS NOT BEEN ABLE TO FIND A CENTER AND SATELLITE IMAGES SUGGEST THAT THE POSSIBLE CIRCULATION CENTER IS NORTH OF THE CONVECTION. HOWEVER...SURFACE DATA...OBSERVATIONS FROM THE PLANE AND CLOUD MOTION VECTORS INDICATE THAT THE TROPICAL CYCLONE CONSISTS OF A LARGE CYCLONIC ENVELOPE WITH A FEW SQUALLS MAINLY TO THE SOUTH AND SOUTHEAST OF THE CENTER. INITIAL INTENSITY REMAINS AT 25 KNOTS. BECAUSE UPPER-LEVEL WINDS ARE MARGINALLY FAVORABLE...ONLY A SLOW STRENGHTENING...IF ANY...IS ANTICIPATED. SINCE THE DEPRESSION DOES NOT HAVE A WELL-DEFINED CENTER...THE INITIAL MOTION IS HIGHLY UNCERTAIN. BEST ESTIMATE OF THE MOTION OF THE OVERALL CIRCULATION IS 340/7. STEERING CURRENTS ARE WEAK SO THE CYCLONE SHOULD CONTINUE TO MOVE VERY SLOWLY ON THIS GENERAL TRACK WITH A GRADUAL TURN TO THE NORTH AND NORTHEAST. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS CONSISTENT WITH BOTH THE GFS AND NOGAPS MODELS WHICH MOVE THE CYCLONE VERY SLOWLY OVER OR NEAR THE NORTH CAROLINA COAST THROUGH 48 HOURS. THEREAFTER...AN APPROACHING TROUGH WILL LIKELY FORCE THE CYCLONE TO MOVE FASTER TO THE NORTHEAST AND EVENTUALLY BECOME EXTRATROPICAL. THE PROXIMITY TO THE COAST AND THE UNCERTAINTY IN THE INTENSITY FORECAST SUGGEST KEEPING THE TROPICAL STORM WATCH FOR PORTIONS OF THE COASTS OF NORTH AND SOUTH CAROLINA AT THIS TIME. NOTE: A QUIKSCAT JUST PASSED OVER THE DEPRESSION AND CONFIRMS THAT THE CYCLONE CONSISTS OF A BROAD CIRCULATION WITH 20-25 KT WINDS. FORECASTER AVILA FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INITIAL 01/0300Z 31.4N 78.9W 25 KT 12HR VT 01/1200Z 32.4N 79.4W 25 KT 24HR VT 02/0000Z 33.5N 79.0W 30 KT...INLAND 36HR VT 02/1200Z 34.5N 77.5W 35 KT...INLAND 48HR VT 03/0000Z 36.0N 75.0W 40 KT...OVER WATER 72HR VT 04/0000Z 40.0N 69.0W 40 KT 96HR VT 05/0000Z 44.0N 62.0W 40 KT 120HR VT 06/0000Z 46.0N 54.0W 40 KT...EXTRATROPICAL |
