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| #32815 (Received by flhurricane at: 1:46 PM 14.Jul.2005) TCPAT5 BULLETIN HURRICANE EMILY INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER 15A NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 2 PM AST THU JUL 14 2005 ...EMILY CONTINUES TO STRENGTHEN...NEARLY CATEGORY THREE... ...AT 2 PM AST...1800Z...THE GOVERNMENT OF VENEZUELA HAS DISCONTINUED THE TROPICAL STORM WARNING FROM CUMANA EASTWARD. A TROPICAL STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE NORTHERN COAST OF VENEZUELA FROM CUMANA WESTWARD TO PUNTO FIJO...INCLUDING ISLA MARGARITA AND THE OFFSHORE ISLANDS NORTH OF THE COAST AND WEST OF CUMANA. A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR BONAIRE...CURACAO...AND ARUBA. A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR THE SOUTHERN COAST OF HISPANIOLA FROM PUNTA SALINAS IN THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC TO PORT-AU-PRINCE HAITI. INTERESTS ELSEWHERE IN THE CENTRAL AND WESTERN CARIBBEAN SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF EMILY. FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...INCLUDING POSSIBLE INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE. AT 2 PM AST...1800Z...THE CENTER OF HURRICANE EMILY WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 12.9 NORTH... LONGITUDE 65.0 WEST OR ABOUT 490 MILES... 795 KM... SOUTHEAST OF SANTO DOMINGO IN THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC. EMILY IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 18 MPH ...30 KM/HR... AND THIS MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS. REPORTS FROM AN AIR FORCE RESERVE UNIT RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT INDICATE THAT MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS HAVE INCREASED AND ARE NOW NEAR 110 MPH...175 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER GUSTS. EMILY IS A STRONG CATEGORY TWO HURRICANE ON THE SAFFIR-SIMPSON SCALE. ADDITIONAL STRENGTHENING IS EXPECTED...AND EMILY COULD BECOME A CATEGORY THREE HURRICANE LATER TODAY. HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 35 MILES... 55 KM... FROM THE CENTER...AND TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 105 MILES...165 KM. ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 972 MB...28.70 INCHES. EMILY IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE TOTAL RAIN ACCUMULATIONS OF 3 TO 6 INCHES ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE WINDWARD ISLANDS...NORTHERN VENEZUELA...AND THE NETHERLANDS ANTILLES...WITH POSSIBLE ISOLATED AMOUNTS OF 12 INCHES OVER MOUNTAINOUS TERRAIN. THESE RAINS COULD PRODUCE LIFE-THREATENING FLASH FLOODS AND MUD SLIDES. RAINFALL OVER THE WINDWARD ISLANDS IS DECREASING. REPEATING THE 2 PM AST POSITION...12.9 N... 65.0 W. MOVEMENT TOWARD...WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 18 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...110 MPH. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE... 972 MB. THE NEXT ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER AT 5 PM AST. FORECASTER FRANKLIN |
