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| #32963 (Received by flhurricane at: 11:03 PM 14.Jul.2005) TCDAT5 HURRICANE EMILY DISCUSSION NUMBER 17 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 11 PM EDT THU JUL 14 2005 EMILY CONTINUES TO INTENSIFY. DVORAK DATA T NUMBERS AT 00Z WERE 6.0 FROM ALL AGENCIES...CORRESPONDING TO AN INTENSITY ESTIMATE OF 115 KT. AIRCRAFT RECONNAISSANCE DATA DURING THE PAST COUPLE OF HOURS INDICATE THAT THE PRESSURE AND WINDS ARE NOT FAR BEHIND THE SATELLITE SIGNATURE. THE FIRST FIX AT 2347Z INCLUDED A CENTRAL PRESSURE OF 962 MB...DOWN 12 MB FROM ABOUT SIX HOURS EARLIER...AND A MAXIMUM 700 MB FLIGHT LEVEL WIND OF 100 KT IN THE NORTHWESTERN QUADRANT. THE PRESSURE HAD FALLEN TO 958 MB AT 0130Z WITH MAXIMUM FLIGHT LEVEL WINDS UP TO 125 KT IN THE NORTHEASTERN QUADRANT... SUPPORTING THE ADVISORY INTENSITY OF 110 KT. NOT MUCH SEEMS TO BE IN THE WAY OF EMILY MAINTAINING MAJOR HURRICANE STATUS...POSSIBLY REACHING CATEGORY FOUR...DURING ITS PATH THROUGH THE CARIBBEAN SEA. THE GFDL MAINTAINS A NEAR-120 KT HURRICANE FOR THE NEXT THREE DAYS...AND WHILE THE GFDL CURIOUSLY WEAKENS EMILY IN THE SOUTHERN GULF OF MEXICO...THE SHIPS MODEL FORECASTS A MAJOR HURRICANE BEYOND 72 HOURS...AND THE OFFICIAL FORECAST CLOSELY FOLLOWS SHIPS LATE IN THE FORECAST PERIOD. ALTHOUGH THE HURRICANE TOOK A SLIGHT JOG TO THE LEFT...OR SOUTH...OF THE PREVIOUS FORECAST TRACK DURING THE PAST FEW HOURS...AN INITIAL MOTION OF 285/17 SEEMS TO HAVE RESUMED. MODEL GUIDANCE IS TIGHTLY CLUSTERED DURING THE NEXT THREE DAYS ON CONTINUING THIS GENERAL MOTION. HOWEVER...ESPECIALLY BEYOND THAT TIME...THE OVERALL GUIDANCE ENVELOPE HAS SHIFTED QUITE SIGNIFICANTLY TO THE NORTH. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS ADJUSTED TO THE RIGHT OF THE PREVIOUS TRACK...BY AN INCREASING AMOUNT BEYOND 48 HOURS...BUT REMAINS ON THE LEFT SIDE OF THE DYNAMICAL MODELS. FORECASTER KNABB FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INITIAL 15/0300Z 13.6N 67.5W 110 KT 12HR VT 15/1200Z 14.4N 70.1W 115 KT 24HR VT 16/0000Z 15.7N 73.6W 115 KT 36HR VT 16/1200Z 17.0N 77.1W 115 KT 48HR VT 17/0000Z 18.2N 80.2W 115 KT 72HR VT 18/0000Z 20.5N 86.5W 115 KT 96HR VT 19/0000Z 22.5N 91.5W 100 KT 120HR VT 20/0000Z 24.5N 95.5W 100 KT |
