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| #33009 (Received by flhurricane at: 5:00 AM 15.Jul.2005) TCDAT5 HURRICANE EMILY DISCUSSION NUMBER 18 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 5 AM EDT FRI JUL 15 2005 EMILY HAS CONTINUED TO INTENSIFY AND IS NOW A CATEGORY 4 HURRICANE BASED ON A RECONNAISSANCE 700 MB FLIGHT-LEVEL WIND OF 128 KT IN THE NORTHEAST QUADRANT AT 0505Z DURING THE OUTBOUND LEG. THE PRESSURE HAD ALSO DECREASED TO 952 MB...DOWN ANOTHER 4 MB IN JUST 2 HOURS. SINCE THE LAST RECON FLIGHT...THE EYE HAS BECOME CLOUD COVERED IN INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY. GIVEN THAT EMILY HAD AN 8 NMI DIAMETER EYE FOR NEARLY 6 HOURS...THE HURRICANE IS PROBABLY GOING THROUGH AN EYEWALL REPLACEMENT CYCLE. THE INTENSITY IS BEING HELD AT 115 KT FOR THIS ADVISORY...EVEN THOUGH THE WINDS MAY BE SLIGHTLY LOWER BASED ON THE RAGGED EYE APPEARANCE NOTED IN SATELLITE IMAGERY. THE INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE REMAINS 285/17...AS IT HAS BEEN FOR MORE THAN 24 HOURS. IT IS DIFFICULT TO ARGUE AGAINST SUCH A STRONG AND PERSISTENT PAST MOTION...BUT ALL OF THE GLOBAL MODELS AND THE GFDL MODEL ARE IN STRONG AGREEMENT ON TAKING EMILY WEST-NORTHWESTWARD TO NEAR THE SOUTHWESTERN COAST OF JAMAICA IN 30-36 HOURS...AND THEN THROUGH THE YUCATAN CHANNEL IN 72 HOURS. IN FACT...THERE IS LESS THAN A 60 NMI SPREAD IN 72 HOURS. HOWEVER...THE MODELS WERE SIMILARLY IN STRONG AGREEMENT 3 DAYS AGO...AND NOW EMILY IS 250 NMI SOUTH OF THOSE FORECAST POSITIONS! THE MODELS HAVE CONSISTENTLY BEEN PREMATURE IN WEAKENING THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE TO THE NORTH THAT EXTENDS FROM BERMUDA ACROSS THE FLORIDA PENINSULA AND ALL THE WAY TO SOUTHERN TEXAS AND NORTHERN MEXICO. DURING THE PAST 24 HOURS... HEIGHTS HAVE CHANGED LITTLE...IF ANY AT ALL...FROM 700 MB TO 400 MB ACROSS FLORIDA AND PUERTO RICO. THIS WOULD SUGGEST THAT...AT LEAST IN THE SHORT TERM...EMILY SHOULD CONTINUE TO MOVE AT 285 DEGREES AND REMAIN TO THE LEFT...OR SOUTH...OF THE MODEL CONSENSUS. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS JUST A TAD SOUTH OF THE PREVIOUS FORECAST. THE GOOD OUTFLOW PATTERN AND NEAR 29C SSTS AHEAD OF EMILY SUGGEST THAT THE HURRICANE SHOULD EASILY RETAIN AN INTENSITY OF CATEGORY 3 TO CATEGORY 4 UNTIL LANDFALL OCCURS OVER THE YUCATAN. AFTER EMILY EMERGES OVER THE SOUTHWESTERN GULF OF MEXICO...29-30C SSTS SHOULD HELP TO KEEP THE CYCLONE AT LEAST A CATEGORY 3 HURRICANE. FORECASTER STEWART FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INITIAL 15/0900Z 13.9N 69.2W 115 KT 12HR VT 15/1800Z 14.7N 71.8W 115 KT 24HR VT 16/0600Z 15.8N 75.3W 115 KT 36HR VT 16/1800Z 17.2N 78.7W 115 KT 48HR VT 17/0600Z 18.5N 82.2W 115 KT 72HR VT 18/0600Z 21.0N 88.0W 100 KT...INLAND OVER YUCATAN 96HR VT 19/0600Z 24.0N 93.0W 105 KT...OVER SW GULFMEX 120HR VT 20/0600Z 25.5N 97.0W 105 KT |
