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| #33225 (Received by flhurricane at: 10:55 PM 15.Jul.2005) TCPAT5 BULLETIN HURRICANE EMILY ADVISORY NUMBER 21 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 11 PM AST FRI JUL 15 2005 ...MAJOR HURRICANE EMILY AGAIN STRENGTHENS TO CATEGORY 4... A HURRICANE WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR JAMAICA AND FOR ALL OF THE CAYMAN ISLANDS. A HURRICANE WARNING MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED WITHIN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS. PREPARATIONS TO PROTECT LIFE AND PROPERTY SHOULD BE RUSHED TO COMPLETION. A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS ALSO IN EFFECT FOR PORTIONS OF THE SOUTHERN COAST OF THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC FROM PUNTA SALINAS WESTWARD TO THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC/HAITI BORDER...AND FOR THE ENTIRE SOUTHWESTERN PENINSULA OF HAITI FROM THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC/HAITI BORDER TO PORT-AU-PRINCE. INTERESTS ELSEWHERE IN THE CENTRAL AND WESTERN CARIBBEAN SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF EMILY. FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...INCLUDING POSSIBLE INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE. AT 11 PM AST...0300Z...THE CENTER OF HURRICANE EMILY WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 15.1 NORTH... LONGITUDE 74.2 WEST OR ABOUT 265 MILES... 425 KM... SOUTHEAST OF KINGSTON JAMAICA AND ABOUT 545 MILES... 880 KM...EAST-SOUTHEAST OF GRAND CAYMAN. EMILY IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 18 MPH ...30 KM/HR...AND THIS MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS. ON THIS TRACK... THE CENTER OF EMILY WILL BE PASSING NOT FAR TO THE SOUTH OF JAMAICA ON SATURDAY. DATA FROM A UNITED STATES AIR FORCE RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT INDICATE THAT MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS HAVE INCREASED AND ARE NOW NEAR 135 MPH...215 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER GUSTS. EMILY IS NOW A DANGEROUS CATEGORY FOUR HURRICANE ON THE SAFFIR-SIMPSON SCALE. SOME FLUCTUATIONS IN STRENGTH ARE COMMON IN MAJOR HURRICANES AND CAN BE EXPECTED DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS. HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 45 MILES... 75 KM... FROM THE CENTER...AND TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 140 MILES...220 KM. NOAA BUOY 42058 IN THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN SEA RECENTLY REPORTED SUSTAINED WINDS OF 39 MPH...TROPICAL STORM FORCE. THE MOST RECENT MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE REPORTED BY THE RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT WAS 954 MB...28.17 INCHES. EMILY MAY PRODUCE RAINFALL ACCUMULATIONS OF 5 TO 8 INCHES OVER JAMAICA WITH MAXIMUM AMOUNTS OF 15 INCHES OVER MOUNTAINOUS TERRAIN. RAINFALL TOTALS OF 5 TO 8 INCHES IS POSSIBLE OVER THE CAYMAN ISLANDS WITH LESSER AMOUNTS OF 3 TO 6 INCHES OVER PORTIONS OF HISPANIOLA AND EASTERN CUBA. THESE RAINS COULD PRODUCE LIFE-THREATENING FLASH FLOODS AND MUD SLIDES. REPEATING THE 11 PM AST POSITION...15.1 N... 74.2 W. MOVEMENT TOWARD...WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 18 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...135 MPH. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE... 954 MB. AN INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER AT 2 AM AST FOLLOWED BY THE NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY AT 5 AM AST. FORECASTER KNABB |
