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| #33229 (Received by flhurricane at: 11:14 PM 15.Jul.2005) TCDAT5 HURRICANE EMILY DISCUSSION NUMBER 21 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 11 PM EDT FRI JUL 15 2005 EMILY HAS ABRUPTLY STRENGTHENED AGAIN...WHICH WE KNOW THANKS TO FREQUENT FIXES FROM THE UNITED STATES AIR FORCE RECONNAISSANCE MISSION TONIGHT. SINCE ABOUT 18Z THIS AFTERNOON...THE CENTRAL PRESSURE HAS FALLEN 15 MB TO 954 MB. VERY RECENT MAXIMUM 700 MB FLIGHT LEVEL WINDS FROM THE AIRCRAFT WERE AS HIGH AS 128 KT IN THE NORTHEASTERN QUADRANT...UP FROM 108 KT IN THAT SAME QUADRANT JUST A COUPLE OF HOURS AGO. THE FLIGHT LEVEL DATA ALSO INDICATE DOUBLE WIND MAXIMA AT ABOUT 8 AND 50 NMI...SUGGESTING CONCENTRIC EYEWALLS...SO A REPLACEMENT CYCLE COULD OCCUR WITHIN THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS. HOWEVER...WE ARE NOT ABLE TO FORECAST SUCH STRUCTURAL CHANGES...SO I WILL KEEP THE FORECAST INTENSITY AT 115 KT THROUGH THE NEXT 48 HOURS WHILE EMILY IS OVER THE INCREASINGLY WARM WATERS OF THE WESTERN CARIBBEAN SEA. THE INTENSITY COULD OF COURSE FLUCTUATE QUITE A BIT DURING THIS PERIOD...WHICH IS COMMON IN MAJOR HURRICANES. EMILY MIGHT WEAKEN SOMEWHAT IF IT SPENDS ENOUGH TIME OVER THE YUCATAN PENINSULA IN A COUPLE OF DAYS. THE INITIAL MOTION...SMOOTHING THROUGH SOME WOBBLES DURING THE PAST SEVERAL HOURS...IS ESTIMATED AT 285/16. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST TAKES EMILY ON MUCH THIS SAME HEADING THROUGHOUT THE FIVE-DAY PERIOD...WITH A GRADUAL AND SLIGHT BEND TO THE RIGHT...AND A LITTLE INCREASE IN FORWARD SPEED IN THE WESTERN CARIBBEAN WHEN EMILY IS EXPECTED TO BE DIRECTLY SOUTH OF THE MID-LEVEL RIDGE OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN UNITED STATES. THIS TRACK IS SIMILAR TO THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY...ALTHOUGH IT IS NOW ON THE NORTH SIDE OF THE MODEL GUIDANCE SUITE WHICH HAS THIS TIME SHIFTED SOUTH. AS WE USUALLY DO WHEN THE MODELS ARE SHIFTING BACK AND FORTH...I WILL ONLY MAKE A SLIGHT ADJUSTMENT...A LITTLE SOUTHWARD...TO THE PREVIOUS OFFICIAL FORECAST. FORECASTER KNABB FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INITIAL 16/0300Z 15.1N 74.2W 115 KT 12HR VT 16/1200Z 15.8N 76.6W 115 KT 24HR VT 17/0000Z 17.0N 79.9W 115 KT 36HR VT 17/1200Z 18.6N 83.2W 115 KT 48HR VT 18/0000Z 20.1N 86.4W 115 KT 72HR VT 19/0000Z 22.5N 92.0W 85 KT 96HR VT 20/0000Z 24.5N 96.5W 95 KT 120HR VT 21/0000Z 26.5N 101.0W 50 KT...INLAND |
