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| #33392 (Received by flhurricane at: 8:03 PM 16.Jul.2005) TCPAT5 BULLETIN HURRICANE EMILY INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER 24A NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 8 PM EDT SAT JUL 16 2005 ...RAINBANDS OF EXTREMELY DANGEROUS CATEGORY FOUR HURRICANE EMILY SPREADING OVER JAMAICA AND THE CAYMAN ISLANDS... A HURRICANE WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR JAMAICA AND FOR ALL OF THE CAYMAN ISLANDS. A HURRICANE WARNING MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED WITHIN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS. PREPARATIONS TO PROTECT LIFE AND PROPERTY SHOULD BE RUSHED TO COMPLETION. A HURRICANE WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE EASTERN AND NORTHERN COASTS OF THE YUCATAN PENINSULA FROM CHETUMAL TO PROGRESO... INCLUDING COZUMEL AND THE ISLAS MUJERES. A HURRICANE WATCH MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA WITHIN THE NEXT 36 HOURS. A TROPICAL STORM WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR PORTIONS OF THE COAST OF BELIZE FROM BELIZE CITY NORTHWARD TO THE BELIZE-MEXICO BORDER. A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MAY BE REQUIRED FOR PORTIONS OF WESTERN CUBA LATER THIS EVENING. INTERESTS ELSEWHERE IN THE CENTRAL AND WESTERN CARIBBEAN... AND THE SOUTHERN GULF OF MEXICO... SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF EMILY. FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...INCLUDING POSSIBLE INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE. AT 8 PM EDT...0000Z...THE CENTER OF HURRICANE EMILY WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 17.1 NORTH...LONGITUDE 79.5 WEST OR ABOUT 140 MILES... 230 KM... SOUTHWEST OF MONTEGO BAY JAMAICA AND ABOUT 195 MILES... 315 KM... SOUTHEAST OF GRAND CAYMAN. EMILY IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 18 MPH... 30 KM/HR... AND THIS GENERAL MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS. ON THIS TRACK... THE CENTER OF EMILY WILL BE MOVING AWAY FROM JAMAICA TONIGHT AND WILL BE NEAR GRAND CAYMAN TONIGHT AND SUNDAY MORNING. DATA FROM AN AIR FORCE RESERVE RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT INDICATE THAT MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS REMAIN NEAR 155 MPH... 250 KM/HR... WITH HIGHER GUSTS. EMILY IS A STRONG CATEGORY FOUR HURRICANE ON THE SAFFIR-SIMPSON SCALE. SOME FLUCTUATIONS IN STRENGTH ARE EXPECTED... AND EMILY COULD BECOME A CATEGORY FIVE HURRICANE AT TIMES... DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS. HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 60 MILES... 95 KM... FROM THE CENTER... AND TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 150 MILES... 240 KM. FOR JAMAICA... HURRICANE FORCE WINDS COULD STILL OCCUR TONIGHT IN GUSTS IN RAINBANDS ALONG THE COASTS... WITH POSSIBLE SUSTAINED HURRICANE FORCE WINDS AT HIGHER ELEVATIONS... ESPECIALLY ABOVE ABOUT 3000 FEET. THE MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE REPORTED BY THE RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT WAS 929 MB...27.43 INCHES. ABOVE NORMAL TIDES... ACCOMPANIED BY LARGE AND DANGEROUS BATTERING WAVES... ARE POSSIBLE ALONG THE SOUTH COASTS OF JAMAICA AND THE CAYMAN ISLANDS. EMILY COULD PRODUCE RAINFALL ACCUMULATIONS OF 5 TO 8 INCHES OVER JAMAICA WITH MAXIMUM AMOUNTS OF 15 INCHES OVER MOUNTAINOUS TERRAIN. RAINFALL TOTALS OF 5 TO 8 INCHES ARE POSSIBLE OVER THE CAYMAN ISLANDS... WITH SOME 1 TO 3 INCH AMOUNTS POSSIBLE OVER SOUTHEASTERN CUBA. RAINS WILL BE INCREASING OVER PORTIONS OF THE YUCATAN PENINSULA ON SUNDAY WITH STORM TOTAL AMOUNTS OF 4 TO 8 INCHES POSSIBLE... AND LOCAL MAXIMUM AMOUNTS UP TO 12 INCHES. THESE RAINS COULD PRODUCE LIFE-THREATENING FLASH FLOODS AND MUD SLIDES. REPEATING THE 8 PM EDT POSITION...17.1 N... 79.5 W. MOVEMENT TOWARD...WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 18 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...155 MPH. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE... 929 MB. THE NEXT ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER AT 11 PM EDT. FORECASTER KNABB |
