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| #33484 (Received by flhurricane at: 7:46 AM 17.Jul.2005) TCPAT5 BULLETIN HURRICANE EMILY INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER 26A NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 8 AM EDT SUN JUL 17 2005 ...EXTREMELY DANGEROUS EMILY PASSING SOUTH OF THE CAYMAN ISLANDS...HEADED FOR THE YUCATAN... AT 8 AM EDT...1200Z...THE GOVERNMENT OF THE CAYMAN ISLANDS HAS CHANGED THE HURRICANE WARNING TO A TROPICAL STORM WARNING FOR GRAND CAYMAN ISLAND...AND HAS DISCONTINUED ALL WARNINGS FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE CAYMAN ISLANDS. A HURRICANE WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR EASTERN COAST OF THE YUCATAN PENINSULA OF MEXICO FROM CHETUMAL NORTHWARD TO CABO CATOCHE... INCLUDING COZUMEL AND THE ISLAS MUJERES. A HURRICANE WARNING MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED WITHIN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS. PREPARATIONS TO PROTECT LIFE AND PROPERTY SHOULD BE RUSHED TO COMPLETION. A HURRICANE WATCH IS IN EFFECT FROM WEST OF CABO CATOCHE ON THE YUCATAN PENINSULA TO CAMPECHE. A HURRICANE WATCH MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN THE NEXT 36 HOURS. A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR THE COAST OF BELIZE FROM BELIZE CITY NORTHWARD TO THE BELIZE-MEXICO BORDER. A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED WITHIN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS. TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE ALSO POSSIBLE OVER PORTIONS OF EXTREME WESTERN CUBA. INTERESTS IN THE SOUTHERN GULF OF MEXICO SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF EMILY. FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...INCLUDING POSSIBLE INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE. AT 8 AM EDT...1200Z...THE CENTER OF HURRICANE EMILY WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 18.3 NORTH... LONGITUDE 82.8 WEST OR ABOUT 115 MILES... 155 KM... SOUTHWEST OF GRAND CAYMAN AND ABOUT 305 MILES...490 KM... EAST-SOUTHEAST OF COZUMEL MEXICO. EMILY IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 20 MPH ...32 KM/HR...AND THIS MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS. ON THE FORECAST TRACK...THE CENTER OF EMILY IS EXPECTED TO REACH THE YUCATAN PENINSULA VERY LATE TONIGHT OR EARLY MONDAY MORNING. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 150 MPH...240 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER GUSTS. EMILY IS A CATEGORY FOUR HURRICANE ON THE SAFFIR-SIMPSON SCALE. FLUCTUATIONS IN INTENSITY ARE COMMON IN MAJOR HURRICANES...BUT LITTLE OVERALL CHANGE IN STRENGTH IS EXPECTED BEFORE EMILY MAKES LANDFALL. AN AIR FORCE RESERVE HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT IS CURRENTLY ENROUTE TO INVESTIGATE EMILY. HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 60 MILES... 95 KM... FROM THE CENTER...AND TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 150 MILES...240 KM. ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 938 MB...27.70 INCHES. ABOVE NORMAL TIDES...ACCOMPANIED BY LARGE AND DANGEROUS WAVES...ARE POSSIBLE ALONG THE SOUTH COASTS OF THE CAYMAN ISLANDS. COASTAL STORM SURGE FLOODING OF 8-12 FEET ABOVE NORMAL TIDE LEVELS...ALONG WITH LARGE AND DANGEROUS BATTERING WAVES...CAN BE EXPECTED NEAR AND TO THE NORTH OF WHERE THE CENTER MAKES LANDFALL IN MEXICO. RAINFALL TOTALS OF 3 TO 6 INCHES ARE POSSIBLE ACROSS THE CAYMAN ISLANDS...WITH RAINFALL TOTALS OF 2 TO 4 INCHES POSSIBLE OVER WESTERN CUBA. STORM TOTAL AMOUNTS OF 5 TO 8 INCHES ARE POSSIBLE OVER THE YUCATAN PENINSULA...WITH ISOLATED MAXIMUM AMOUNTS OF UP TO 12 INCHES. REPEATING THE 8 AM EDT POSITION...18.3 N... 82.8 W. MOVEMENT TOWARD...WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 20 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...150 MPH. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE... 938 MB. THE NEXT ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER AT 11 AM EDT. FORECASTER BEVEN |
