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| #33544 (Received by flhurricane at: 4:37 PM 17.Jul.2005) TCDAT5 HURRICANE EMILY DISCUSSION NUMBER 28 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 5 PM EDT SUN JUL 17 2005 THE LAST REPORTS FROM AN AIR FORCE RESERVE HURRICANE HUNTER INDCIATED THAT THE CENTRAL PRESSURE OF EMILY HAD RISEN TO 948 MB...AND THAT THE MAXIMUM 700 MB FLIGHT-LEVEL WINDS HAD DECREASED TO 134 KT IN THE NORTH QUADRANT. SINCE THE PLANE LEFT...THERE ARE MIXED SIGNALS ON THE STRUCTURE. SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS THAT THE OVERALL CLOUD PATTERN IS BETTER ORGANIZED AND THAT THERE HAS BEEN SIGNIFICANT CLOUD TOP COOLING NEAR THE CENTER. HOWEVER...THE EYE HAS BECOME MUCH LESS DISTINCT. THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS SET TO 125 KT BASED ON THE LAST AIRCRAFT DATA. THE CANCUN RADAR SUGGESTS AN OUTER EYEWALL MAY BE FORMING...ALTHOUGH THE RADAR CAN NOT YET RELIABLY SEE THE PRECIPITATION EAST OF THE EYE. THE INITIAL MOTION IS 295/17...JUST A LITTLE RIGHT OF 6 HR AGO. THERE HAVE BEEN SOME CHANGES IN THE TRACK MODEL GUIDANCE...LIKELY DUE TO BETTER MODEL ANALYSES OF THE MID-LATITUDE TROUGH OVER THE NORTHWESTERN UNITED STATES AND ITS SUBSEQUENT IMPACT ON THE SOUTHERN U.S. RIDGE. LARGE-SCALE MODELS ARE NOW CALLING FOR MORE OF A WEAKNESS IN THE RIDGE OVER THE WESTERN GULF COAST. THIS CAUSES THE TRACK GUIDANCE TO FORECAST LESS OF A WESTWARD TURN WHILE EMILY IS OVER THE GULF OF MEXICO...WHICH CAUSES THE MODELS TO FORECAST LANDFALL FARTHER TO THE NORTH OVER NORTHEASTERN MEXICO. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST TRACK IS MOVED A LITTLE NORTHWARD IN RESPONSE TO THE GUIDANCE SHIFT AND IS NOW IN THE MIDDLE OF THE GUIDANCE ENVELOPE INSTEAD OF THE NORTHERN EDGE. THIS CHANGE IN THE FORECAST TRACK INCREASES THE THREAT TO SOUTHERN TEXAS. GIVEN THE COOLING TOPS AND THE IMPROVEMENT IN THE OVERALL CLOUD PATTERN...A BURST OF INTENSIFICATION PRIOR TO LANDFALL CANNOT BE RULED OUT. HOWEVER...IF AN OUTER EYEWALL IS FORMING THIS BECOMES LESS LIKELY. EMILY SHOULD WEAKEN AFTER LANDFALL...THEN RE-INTENSIFY OVER THE GULF OF MEXICO. HOW MUCH EMILY COULD INTENSIFY OVER THE GULF WILL DEPEND ON JUST WHAT STRUCTURE EMERGES FROM YUCATAN...SO THERE IS A LARGER THAN NORMAL POSSIBLE ERROR ON THE 24-48 HR INTENSITY FORECASTS. NEVERTHELESS...EMILY IS EXPECTED TO MAKE LANDFALL ON THE NORTH AMERICAN MAINLAND AS A MAJOR HURRICANE. FORECASTER BEVEN FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INITIAL 17/2100Z 19.4N 85.2W 125 KT 12HR VT 18/0600Z 20.4N 87.5W 125 KT...INLAND 24HR VT 18/1800Z 21.8N 90.4W 90 KT...OVER WATER 36HR VT 19/0600Z 23.0N 93.2W 100 KT 48HR VT 19/1800Z 23.9N 95.7W 105 KT 72HR VT 20/1800Z 25.0N 100.5W 65 KT...INLAND 96HR VT 21/1800Z 25.5N 105.0W 20 KT...INLAND DISSIPATING 120HR VT 22/1800Z...DISSIPATED |
