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| #33589 (Received by flhurricane at: 10:55 PM 17.Jul.2005) TCDAT5 HURRICANE EMILY DISCUSSION NUMBER 29 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 11 PM EDT SUN JUL 17 2005 AIR FORCE RECON REPORTED A PEAK 700 MB FLIGHT LEVEL WIND OF 134 KT IN THE NORTHEAST QUADRANT AT 0018Z. NORMALLY THIS WOULD CORRESPOND TO A SURFACE WIND ESTIMATE OF ABOUT 120 KT. HOWEVER...THE CENTRAL PRESSURE HAS BEEN RISING STEADILY AND IS NOW UP TO 955 MB. THEREFORE IT IS ESTIMATED THAT THE INTENSITY IS JUST A LITTLE LOWER AT THIS TIME...115 KT. THIS IS STILL CATEGORY FOUR STRENGTH...AND EMILY REMAINS A FORMIDABLE HURRICANE. RADAR IMAGERY FROM CANCUN SHOWS THE EYEWALL STRUCTURE FLUCTUATING...BUT WITH NO DEFINITIVE INDICATIONS OF AN EYEWALL REPLACEMENT. NOT MUCH CHANGE IN INTENSITY IS LIKELY BEFORE LANDFALL IN A FEW HOURS. A WEAK UPPER-LEVEL LOW OVER THE BAY OF CAMPECHE MAY HAVE BEEN IMPARTING SOME SOUTHWESTERLY SHEAR OVER EMILY. GLOBAL MODELS SUGGEST THAT THIS UPPER LOW WILL MOVE WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD AND WEAKEN WITHIN 12-24 HOURS....CREATING AN UPPER-TROPOSPHERIC ENVIRONMENT THAT APPEARS TO BE CONDUCIVE TO STRENGTHENING. THEREFORE...ONCE THE CENTER MOVES BACK OVER THE WATERS OF THE SOUTHERN GULF OF MEXICO... RE-INTENSIFICATION IS PREDICTED. JUST HOW MUCH EMILY RESTRENGTHENS IS PARTLY DEPENDENT ON THE EXTENT THAT THE INNER CORE IS DISRUPTED AFTER PASSING OVER NORTHERN YUCATAN. INITIAL MOTION...295/16...IS ABOUT THE SAME AS BEFORE. THE TRACK FORECAST REASONING IS ALSO BASICALLY UNCHANGED. THE GFS MODEL INDICATES THAT A VERY WEAK SHORTWAVE TROUGH MAY CAUSE A SLIGHT EROSION IN THE MID-LEVEL RIDGE OVER THE NORTHERN GULF COAST IN ABOUT 24 HOURS...BUT THE RIDGE IS LIKELY TO RESTRENGTHEN THEREAFTER. THE CONSENSUS OF THE DYNAMICAL TRACK MODELS HAS SHIFTED EVER SO SLIGHTLY TO THE SOUTH FOR THIS PACKAGE...WITH THE GFS SHOWING THE SOUTHERNMOST TRACK. INTERESTINGLY...THAT MODEL HAS HAD THE LOWEST 72 HR TRACK ERROR OF ALL THE GUIDANCE FOR EMILY...THUS FAR. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS VERY CLOSE TO THE PREVIOUS ONE AND IS NOW A LITTLE TO THE NORTH OF THE CONSENSUS. A HURRICANE WATCH WILL PROBABLY BE ISSUED FOR A PORTION OF THE WESTERN GULF OF MEXICO COAST...INCLUDING THE SOUTHERN TEXAS COAST...EARLY ON MONDAY. FORECASTER PASCH FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INITIAL 18/0300Z 19.9N 86.5W 115 KT 12HR VT 18/1200Z 21.0N 88.9W 90 KT...INLAND 24HR VT 19/0000Z 22.3N 91.7W 95 KT 36HR VT 19/1200Z 23.3N 94.4W 100 KT 48HR VT 20/0000Z 24.1N 96.8W 105 KT 72HR VT 21/0000Z 25.0N 102.0W 30 KT...INLAND 96HR VT 22/0000Z...DISSIPATED |
