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| #33821 (Received by flhurricane at: 4:52 AM 19.Jul.2005) TCDAT5 HURRICANE EMILY DISCUSSION NUMBER 34 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 5 AM EDT TUE JUL 19 2005 REPORTS FROM AN AIR FORCE RESERVE HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT INDICATE THAT EMILY IS BECOMING BETTER ORGANIZED. WHILE THE MAXIMUM 700 MB FLIGHT-LEVEL WINDS ARE STILL ABOUT 90 KT...THE WINDS INCREASED SIGNIFICANTLY IN THE NORTHWEST QUADRANT ON THE LAST PASS...AND THE RADIUS OF MAXIMUM WINDS DECREASED. SINCE THE PLANE LEFT... SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS A LARGE BURST OF CONVECTION THAT HAS COVERED THE EYE SEEN EARLIER. THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS 80 KT...AND THIS COULD BE A LITTLE CONSERVATIVE. THE NEXT PLANE IS SCHEDULED TO ARRIVE IN EMILY ABOUT 0930Z. THE INITIAL MOTION IS 300/13...WITH THE EYE WOBBLING BETWEEN 295-300 DEGREES ACCORDING TO THE AIRCRAFT FIXES. EMILY REMAINS ON THE SOUTH SIDE OF A DEEP-LAYER RIDGE OVER THE NORTHERN GULF COAST... WITH LARGE-SCALE MODELS FORECASTING THE RIDGE TO BUILD DURING THE NEXT 24-36 HR. RAWINSONDE DATA FROM TEXAS SUGGESTS THE MODELS MAY BE UNDERESTIMATING THE STRENGTH OF THE RIDGE...AS 20-30 METER HEIGHT RISES WERE NOTED. ON THE OTHER HAND...SOME OF THE LARGE-SCALE MODELS DID NOT INITIALIZE EMILY IN THE RIGHT PLACE. OVERALL...THE GUIDANCE IS IN GOOD AGREEMENT THAT EMILY SHOULD TURN WESTWARD UNDER THE RIDGE DURING THE NEXT 24-36 HR...WITH THE BIG QUESTION OF WHEN AND HOW SHARP WILL THE TURN BE. SINCE THE STORM IS NOT YET OFF THE PREVIOUS TRACK AND THE GUIDANCE HAS CHANGED LITTLE...THE NEW TRACK IS BASICALLY AN UPDATE OF THE PREVIOUS TRACK. HOWEVER...IF THE TURN IS LATER OR MORE GRADUAL THAN FORECAST...EMILY COULD MAKE LANDFALL CLOSER TO THE TEXAS/MEXICO BORDER THAN CURRENTLY FORECAST. WITH THE INCREASING ORGANIZATION AND THE RETURN OF STRONG CONVECTION...CONDITIONS APPEAR FAVORABLE FOR EMILY TO STRENGTHEN UNTIL LANDFALL. THE NEW INTENSITY FORECAST CALLS FOR THE STORM TO REACH CATEGORY THREE STATUS BEFORE LANDFALL...A VALUE SOMEWHAT ABOVE THE SHIPS GUIDANCE BUT IN AGREEMENT WITH THE PREVIOUS GFDL RUN. EMILY SHOULD WEAKEN AFTER LANDFALL AND DISSIPATE OVER THE MOUNTAINS OF NORTHERN MEXICO BY 72 HR. IF EMILY FOLLOWS THE FORECAST TRACK...HURRICANE CONDITIONS WOULD STAY SOUTH OF THE LOWER TEXAS COAST. HOWEVER...ANY DEVIATION TO THE RIGHT COULD BRING HURRICANE CONDITIONS TO TEXAS. THEREFORE... A HURRICANE WARNING IS BEING ISSUED FOR PORTIONS OF THE LOWER TEXAS COAST AT THIS TIME. FORECASTER BEVEN FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INITIAL 19/0900Z 23.5N 93.5W 80 KT 12HR VT 19/1800Z 24.1N 95.2W 90 KT 24HR VT 20/0600Z 24.5N 97.3W 100 KT 36HR VT 20/1800Z 24.5N 99.6W 60 KT...INLAND 48HR VT 21/0600Z 24.5N 102.0W 20 KT...INLAND REMNANT LOW 72HR VT 22/0600Z...DISSIPATED |
