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| #33867 (Received by flhurricane at: 10:37 AM 19.Jul.2005) TCPAT5 BULLETIN HURRICANE EMILY ADVISORY NUMBER 35 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 10 AM CDT TUE JUL 19 2005 ...EMILY BECOMING MUCH BETTER ORGANIZED AS IT MOVES TOWARD NORTHEASTERN MEXICO AND FAR SOUTH TEXAS... ...EMILY EXPECTED TO BECOME A CATEGORY TWO HURRICANE LATER TODAY... A HURRICANE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR THE LOWER TEXAS COAST FROM PORT MANSFIELD SOUTHWARD TO THE TEXAS/MEXICO BORDER. A HURRICANE WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR NORTHEASTERN MEXICO FROM SOUTH OF THE TEXAS/MEXICO BORDER TO LA CRUZ AND A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FROM SOUTH OF LA CRUZ TO CABO ROJO. A HURRICANE OR TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT HURRICANE OR TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS...RESPECTIVELY...ARE EXPECTED WITHIN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS. PREPARATIONS TO PROTECT LIFE AND PROPERTY SHOULD BE RUSHED TO COMPLETION. A TROPICAL STORM WARNING AND A HURRICANE WATCH REMAIN IN EFFECT NORTH OF PORT MANSFIELD TO BAFFIN BAY TEXAS. A HURRICANE WATCH MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...GENERALLY WITHIN 36 HOURS. FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...INCLUDING POSSIBLE INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE. AT 10 AM CDT...1500Z...THE CENTER OF HURRICANE EMILY WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 23.9 NORTH... LONGITUDE 94.5 WEST OR ABOUT 210 MILES... 335 KM... EAST OF LA PESCA MEXICO AND ABOUT 235 MILES... 375 KM...SOUTHEAST OF BROWNSVILLE TEXAS. EMILY IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 14 MPH...22 KM/HR. A GRADUAL TURN TOWARD THE WEST IS EXPECTED DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS. THIS MOTION SHOULD BRING THE CENTER OF EMILY NEAR THE NORTHEASTERN COAST OF MEXICO BY WEDNESDAY MORNING. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 90 MPH...150 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER GUSTS. EMILY IS CURRENTLY A CATEGORY ONE HURRICANE ON THE SAFFIR-SIMPSON HURRICANE SCALE. HOWEVER...STRENGTHENING IS EXPECTED DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS...AND EMILY IS COULD BECOME A A CATEGORY TWO HURRICANE LATER TODAY...AND A MAJOR CATEGORY THREE HURRICANE BEFORE LANDFALL WEDNESDAY MORNING. HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 40 MILES... 65 KM... FROM THE CENTER...AND TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 145 MILES...230 KM. THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 972 MB...28.70 INCHES. COASTAL STORM SURGE FLOODING OF 6 TO 9 FEET ABOVE NORMAL TIDE LEVELS...WITH HIGHER LEVELS IN BAYS...ACCOMPANIED BY LARGE AND DANGEROUS BATTERING WAVES...CAN BE EXPECTED NEAR AND TO THE NORTH OF WHERE THE CENTER MAKES LANDFALL. RAINFALL ACCUMULATIONS OF 5 TO 10 INCHES ARE POSSIBLE OVER THE LOWER RIO GRANDE VALLEY OF SOUTH TEXAS AND NORTHEASTERN MEXICO...WITH ISOLATED MAXIMUM AMOUNTS OF 15 INCHES POSSIBLE. ISOLATED TORNADOES ARE POSSIBLE OVER FAR SOUTHERN TEXAS TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY. REPEATING THE 10 AM CDT POSITION...23.9 N... 94.5 W. MOVEMENT TOWARD...WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 14 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS... 90 MPH. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE... 972 MB. INTERMEDIATE ADVISORIES WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER AT NOON CDT AND 2 PM CDT FOLLOWED BY THE NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY AT 4 PM CDT. FORECASTER STEWART |
