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| #33960 (Received by flhurricane at: 4:58 PM 19.Jul.2005) TCDAT5 HURRICANE EMILY DISCUSSION NUMBER 36 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 5 PM EDT TUE JUL 19 2005 DOPPLER RADAR...SATELLITE IMAGES...AND REPORTS FROM AN AIR FORCE RESERVE HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT CONTINUE TO INDICATE THAT EMILY IS STILL GETTING BETTER ORGANIZED. THE CENTRAL PRESSURE HAS DECREASED ABOUT 14 MB IN THE PAST 4 HOURS...BUT THE MAXIMUM FLIGHT-LEVEL WINDS HAVE ONLY INCREASED TO 96 KT ON THE OUTBOUND LEG AT 1939Z. HOWEVER...THE RECON WIND DATA ALSO INDICATED A TRIPLE WIND MAXIMUM IN THE NORTHEAST QUADRANT AT ABOUT 20...40...AND 50 N MI FROM THE CENTER. THIS HAS LIKELY SPREAD OUT THE PRESSURE GRADIENT AND...FORTUNATELY...NOT ALLOWED THE WINDS TO INCREASE TO MAJOR HURRICANE STRENGTH LIKE THE CENTRAL PRESSURE WOULD TYPICALLY SUPPORT. UPPER-LEVEL OUTFLOW CONTINUES TO EXPAND AND IMPROVE IN ALL QUADRANTS...BUT ESPECIALLY IN THE WESTERN SEMICIRCLE. WHEN THE WIGGLES AND WOBBLES ARE SMOOTHED OUT...THE INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS 290/10. RADAR AND RECON DATA SUGGEST THAT THE INNER-CORE WIND FIELD AND EYE HAVE PROBABLY STABILIZED NOW. SPECIAL 18Z UPPER-AIR OBSERVATIONS INDICATE THAT THE DEEP-LAYER SUBTROPICAL RIDGE THAT LIES ALONG THE SOUTHEASTERN U.S. GULF COAST WESTWARD TO SOUTHEASTERN AND WESTERN TEXAS HAS CHANGED LITTLE DURING THE PAST 24 HOURS. AS SUCH...A GENERAL 285-290 DEGREES MOTION SHOULD CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT 12 HOURS OR SO...AND POSSIBLY EVEN UP UNTIL LANDFALL OCCURS...WITH A GRADUAL BEND TOWARD THE WEST AFTERWARDS. EVEN IF EMILY WAS TO MAINTAIN A 295 DEGREE MOTION...THE EYE WOULD STILL REMAIN AT LEAST 50 N MI SOUTH OF THE TEXAS BORDER. THE GFDL AND GFS MODELS ARE ALREADY SOUTH OF THE CURRENT POSITION...SO THE FORECAST TRACK HAS BEEN SHIFTED A TAD NORTH OF THE PREVIOUS TRACK...AND IS ALSO A LITTLE NORTH OF NHC MODEL CONSENSUS. THE BIG QUESTION IS WHEN WILL EMILY'S WINDS FINALLY ADJUST TO THE CENTRAL PRESSURE? THE EYE HAS CONTINUED TO CLEAR OUT IN SATELLITE IMAGERY AND HAS BECOME BETTER DEFINED AND HAS ALSO CONTRACTED AS SEEN IN THE BROWNSVILLE WSR-88 DOPPLER RADAR DATA. THE TRIPLE WIND MAXIMUM IS STILL NOTED IN THE RADAR DATA...BUT THE REFLECTIVITY IN THOSE CONVECTIVE BANDS HAS DECREASED. THIS MAY BE A SIGN THAT THE OUTER WIND FIELD IS BEGINNING TO WEAKEN...WHICH WOULD ALLOW THE INNER WIND FIELD TO SPIN UP. GIVEN THE VERY FAVORABLE UPPER-LEVEL OUTFLOW PATTERN AND SSTS OF 85F AND WARMER...A PERIOD OF RAPID INTENSIFICATION IS FORECAST FOR THE NEXT 12 HOURS OR SO RIGHT UP UNTIL LANDFALL OCCURS. AFTER LANDFALL...RAPID WEAKENING IS EXPECTED OVER THE ROUGH AND HIGHER TERRAIN OF NORTHEASTERN MEXICO. IF EMILY FOLLOWS THE FORECAST TRACK...HURRICANE CONDITIONS WOULD LIKELY REMAIN SOUTH OF THE LOWER TEXAS COAST. HOWEVER...ANY DEVIATION TO THE RIGHT COULD BRING HURRICANE CONDITIONS TO FAR SOUTH TEXAS. EVEN IF EMILY BENDS TO THE WEST AS FORECAST...AN NHC EXPERIMENTAL PRODUCT SHOWS THERE IS AT LEAST AN 85 PERCENT CHANCE OF SUSTAINED TROPICAL STORM-FORCE WINDS IN THE BROWNSVILLE AREA. FORECASTER STEWART FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INITIAL 19/2100Z 24.3N 95.6W 85 KT 12HR VT 20/0600Z 24.6N 97.2W 100 KT 24HR VT 20/1800Z 24.7N 99.3W 35 KT...DISSIPATING INLAND 36HR VT 21/0600Z 24.7N 101.5W 20 KT...REMNANT LOW INLAND 48HR VT 21/1800Z...DISSIPATED INLAND |
