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| #33995 (Received by flhurricane at: 6:49 PM 19.Jul.2005) TCDAT5 HURRICANE EMILY SPECIAL DISCUSSION NUMBER 37 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 7 PM EDT TUE JUL 19 2005 THIS SPECIAL ADVISORY IS BEING ISSUED TO UPDATE THE INITIAL AND FORECAST INTENSITY OF EMILY. MAXIMUM FLIGHT LEVEL WINDS AT 700 MB FROM AN AIR FORCE HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT WERE 122 KT AT 2126Z... SUPPORTING THE INITIAL INTENSITY OF 110 KT. THE WINDS HAVE NOW CAUGHT UP TO THE MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE THAT WAS ALREADY TYPICAL OF AT LEAST A CATEGORY THREE HURRICANE. ADDITIONALLY... THE WIND RADII HAVE BEEN EXPANDED SLIGHTLY TO THE NORTHEAST BASED ON THE LATEST AIRCRAFT DATA. THE INTENSITY FORECAST HAS ALSO BEEN ADJUSTED UPWARD TO REFLECT RECENT TRENDS... AND EMILY COULD REACH CATEGORY FOUR INTENSITY BEFORE LANDFALL. THE TRACK FORECAST HAS NOT BEEN CHANGED SINCE THE LAST ADVISORY. FORECASTER KNABB FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INITIAL 19/2300Z 24.5N 96.0W 110 KT 12HR VT 20/0600Z 24.6N 97.2W 120 KT 24HR VT 20/1800Z 24.7N 99.3W 40 KT...DISSIPATING INLAND 36HR VT 21/0600Z 24.7N 101.5W 20 KT...REMNANT LOW INLAND 48HR VT 21/1800Z...DISSIPATED |
