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| #34087 (Received by flhurricane at: 4:37 AM 20.Jul.2005) TCPAT5 BULLETIN HURRICANE EMILY ADVISORY NUMBER 39 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 4 AM CDT WED JUL 20 2005 ...OUTER EYEWALL OF MAJOR HURRICANE EMILY MOVING ONTO THE NORTHEASTERN COAST OF MEXICO... A HURRICANE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR THE LOWER TEXAS COAST FROM PORT MANSFIELD SOUTHWARD TO THE TEXAS/MEXICO BORDER. A HURRICANE WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR NORTHEASTERN MEXICO FROM SOUTH OF THE TEXAS/MEXICO BORDER TO LA CRUZ AND A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FROM SOUTH OF LA CRUZ TO CABO ROJO. AT 4 AM CDT...0900 UTC...THE HURRICANE WATCH IS DISCONTINUED NORTH OF PORT MANSFIELD TO BAFFIN BAY TEXAS. A TROPICAL STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT NORTH OF PORT MANSFIELD TO BAFFIN BAY. A HURRICANE OR TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT HURRICANE OR TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS...RESPECTIVELY...ARE EXPECTED WITHIN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS. PREPARATIONS TO PROTECT LIFE AND PROPERTY SHOULD BE RUSHED TO COMPLETION. FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...INCLUDING POSSIBLE INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE. AT 4 AM CDT...0900Z...THE CENTER OF HURRICANE EMILY WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 24.7 NORTH...LONGITUDE 97.2 WEST OR ABOUT 80 MILES... 125 KM...SOUTH-SOUTHEAST OF MATAMOROS MEXICO AND ABOUT 85 MILES... 135 KM...SOUTH-SOUTHEAST OF BROWNSVILLE TEXAS. EMILY IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 8 MPH...13 KM/HR. A TURN TOWARD THE WEST IS EXPECTED TODAY. THIS MOTION SHOULD BRING THE CENTER OF EMILY ACROSS THE NORTHEASTERN COAST OF MEXICO NEAR SAN FERNANDO DURING THE NEXT FEW HOURS. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 125 MPH...205 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER GUSTS. THIS MAKES EMILY A DANGEROUS CATEGORY THREE HURRICANE ON THE SAFFIR-SIMPSON SCALE. FLUCTUATIONS IN STRENGTH ARE POSSIBLE BEFORE LANDFALL...AND THERE IS STILL A CHANCE THAT EMILY COULD BECOME A CATEGORY FOUR HURRICANE. WEAKENING IS EXPECTED AFTER LANDFALL. HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 70 MILES...110 KM... FROM THE CENTER...AND TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 160 MILES...260 KM. WINDS ARE GUSTING TO TROPICAL STORM FORCE IN SQUALLS OVER SOUTH TEXAS. THE LATEST MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE REPORTED BY AN AIR FORCE RESERVE HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT IS 943 MB...27.85 INCHES. COASTAL STORM SURGE FLOODING OF 7 TO 11 FEET ABOVE NORMAL TIDE LEVELS...WITH HIGHER LEVELS IN BAYS...ACCOMPANIED BY LARGE AND DANGEROUS BATTERING WAVES...CAN BE EXPECTED NEAR AND TO THE NORTH OF WHERE THE CENTER MAKES LANDFALL. THE HEAVIEST RAINFALL IS LIKELY OVER NORTHEASTERN MEXICO WHERE 5 TO 10 INCHES ARE LIKELY WITH ISOLATED MAXIMUM AMOUNTS UP TO 15 INCHES POSSIBLE IN THE MOUNTAINS. THESE RAINS COULD CAUSE LIFE-THREATENING FLASH FLOODS AND MUD SLIDES. RAINFALL ACCUMULATIONS OF 2 TO 4 INCHES ARE EXPECTED OVER SOUTHERN TEXAS AND THE LOWER RIO GRANDE VALLEY. ISOLATED TORNADOES ARE POSSIBLE OVER FAR SOUTH TEXAS TONIGHT...AND OVER SOUTHERN AND SOUTH-CENTRAL TEXAS ON WEDNESDAY. REPEATING THE 4 AM CDT POSITION...24.7 N... 97.2 W. MOVEMENT TOWARD...WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 8 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...125 MPH. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE... 943 MB. INTERMEDIATE ADVISORIES WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER AT 6 AM CDT AND 8 AM CDT FOLLOWED BY THE NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY AT 10 AM CDT. FORECASTER BEVEN |
