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| #34092 (Received by flhurricane at: 4:43 AM 20.Jul.2005) TCDAT5 HURRICANE EMILY DISCUSSION NUMBER 39 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 5 AM EDT WED JUL 20 2005 REPORTS FROM AN AIR FORCE RESERVE HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT AND WSR-88D DATA FROM BROWNSVILLE SHOW THAT EMILY HAS A CLASSIC CONCENTRIC EYEWALL STRUCTURE THIS MORNING...WITH DIAMETERS OF 16 AND 50 N MI. THE HIGHEST WINDS ARE CURRENTLY OCCURRING IN THE NORTHEAST QUADRANT OF THE OUTER EYEWALL...WITH THE AIRCRAFT RECENTLY REPORTING 107 KT 700 MB FLIGHT-LEVEL WINDS IN THAT AREA. THE DEEPENING TREND OBSERVED EARLIER HAS ENDED...WITH THE AIRCRAFT-MEASURED CENTRAL PRESSURES HOVERING IN THE 943-945 MB RANGE SINCE 02Z. THE INITIAL INTENSITY REMAINS 110 KT. THE INITIAL MOTION IS A WOBBLY 285/7. A BUILDING LOW/MID LEVEL RIDGE OVER TEXAS SHOULD TURN EMILY TO A WESTERLY TRACK IN THE NEXT 12 HR OR SO...AND THIS MOTION PERSIST UNTIL EMILY DISSIPATES OVER NORTHERN MEXICO. THE NEW FORECAST TRACK IS ESSENTIALLY AN UPDATE OF THE PREVIOUS TRACK. EMILY IS JUST ABOUT OUT OF TIME TO STRENGTHEN...AND THE PRESENCE OF CONCENTRIC EYEWALLS SUGGESTS THAT LITTLE CHANGE IN STRENGTH IS LIKELY PRIOR TO LANDFALL. THAT BEING SAID...THERE IS STILL A CHANCE THAT EMILY COULD BECOME A CATEGORY FOUR HURRICANE IF FRICTIONAL CONVERGENCE CAUSES THE OUTER EYEWALL TO TIGHTEN UP AS THE HURRICANE CROSSES THE COAST. WEAKENING WILL OCCUR AFTER LANDFALL...AND EMILY SHOULD DISSIPATE OVER THE MOUNTAINS OF NORTHERN MEXICO IN ABOUT 36 HR. THE 12 FT SEAS RADII WERE EXPANDED BASED ON BUOY DATA... AND THE WIND RADII WERE EXPANDED SLIGHTLY MORE BASED ON RECENT AIRCRAFT FLIGHT LEVEL DATA. FORECASTER BEVEN FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INITIAL 20/0900Z 24.7N 97.2W 110 KT 12HR VT 20/1800Z 24.8N 98.6W 75 KT...INLAND 24HR VT 21/0600Z 24.8N 100.7W 25 KT...INLAND DISSIPATING 36HR VT 21/1800Z...DISSIPATED |
