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| #34146 (Received by flhurricane at: 10:43 AM 20.Jul.2005) TCDAT5 HURRICANE EMILY DISCUSSION NUMBER 40 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 11 AM EDT WED JUL 20 2005 DATA FROM THE BROWNSVILLE WSR-88D DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED VELOCITIES THAT SUPPORTED 110 KT RIGHT AT LANDFALL...WITH APPROXIMATE SURFACE WIND ESTIMATES ALONG THE COAST OF 100 KT RIGHT UP UNTIL ABOUT 1330Z AFTER EMILY HAD MOVED INLAND. HOWEVER...OVER THE PAST HOUR... DOPPLER VELOCITIES HAVE DECREASED TO AROUND 100 KT...SO THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS SET TO 90 KT. EVEN THOUGH EMILY IS AT LEAST 30 N MI INLAND...IT STILL HAS GOOD INNER-CORE STRUCTURE AND BOTH THE EYE AND EYEWALL REMAIN WELL DEFINED...AS DOES THE OUTFLOW PATTERN. THE INITIAL MOTION IS FINALLY A STEADY 280/09. UPPER AIR DATA AT 12Z INDICATES THE LOW- TO MID-LEVEL RIDGE OVER CENTRAL TEXAS HAS REMAINED INTACT AND HAS BUILT WESTWARD INTO WEST TEXAS. THIS SHOULD KEEP EMILY ON A GENERAL WESTERLY TRACK FOR THE NEXT 18-24 HOURS. BY 24 HOURS...THE 10000 FT PEAKS OF THE SIERRA MADRE ORIENTAL MOUNTAIN RANGE WILL LIKELY SEPARATE THE LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION FROM THE MID- AND UPPER-LEVEL CIRCULATIONS. THE SURFACE/LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION MAY ACTUALLY REMAIN BEHIND EAST OF THE MOUNTAIN RANGE...WHILE THE REST OF THE CIRCULATION MOVES FARTHER WESTWARD. EMILY SHOULD RAPIDLY WEAKEN TODAY AND WILL LIKELY BE BELOW HURRICANE STRENGTH BY LATE AFTERNOON. ALTHOUGH THE CENTER OF EMILY WILL BE WELL INLAND BY 12 HOURS...TROPICAL STORM STATUS IS BEING MAINTAINED AT THAT TIME DUE TO THE LARGE TROPICAL STORM-FORCE WIND FIELD THAT EXISTS TO THE NORTHEAST AND EAST OVER WATER AND ALONG THE COASTAL AREAS OF NORTHEASTERN MEXICO. HOWEVER...COMPLETE DISSIPATION SHOULD OCCUR BY 24 TO 36 HOURS WHEN EMILY IS OVER THE MOUNTAINS OF NORTHERN MEXICO. FORECASTER STEWART FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INITIAL 20/1500Z 25.0N 98.1W 90 KT...INLAND 12HR VT 21/0000Z 25.1N 99.4W 40 KT...DISSIPATING INLAND 24HR VT 21/1200Z 25.2N 101.1W 20 KT...REMNANT LOW INLAND 36HR VT 22/0000Z...DISSIPATED INLAND |
