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| #34148 (Received by flhurricane at: 10:49 AM 20.Jul.2005) TCPAT5 BULLETIN HURRICANE EMILY ADVISORY NUMBER 40 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 10 AM CDT WED JUL 20 2005 ...EMILY WELL INLAND OVER NORTHEASTERN MEXICO... ...WEAKENS TO A CATEGORY TWO HURRICANE... A HURRICANE WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR NORTHEASTERN MEXICO FROM SOUTH OF THE TEXAS/MEXICO BORDER SOUTHWARD TO LA CRUZ MEXICO. AT 10 AM CDT...1500Z...THE HURRICANE WARNING FOR THE SOUTH TEXAS COAST HAS BEEN REPLACED BY A TROPICAL STORM WARNING...AND THE TROPICAL STORM WARNING NORTH OF PORT MANSFIELD TEXAS HAS BEEN DISCONTINUED. A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS NOW IN EFFECT FROM PORT MANSFIELD TEXAS SOUTHWARD TO THE TEXAS/MEXICO BORDER...AND ALSO FROM SOUTH OF LA CRUZ SOUTHWARD TO CABO ROJO MEXICO. FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...INCLUDING POSSIBLE INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE. AT 10 AM CDT...1500Z...THE CENTER OF HURRICANE EMILY WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 25.0 NORTH... LONGITUDE 98.1 WEST OR ABOUT 15 MILES ... 25 KM... NORTHEAST OF SAN FERNANDO MEXICO AND ABOUT 75 MILES ... 115 KM...SOUTH-SOUTHWEST OF BROWNSVILLE TEXAS. EMILY IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST NEAR 10 MPH...17 KM/HR...AND THIS GENERAL MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS... TAKING EMILY FARTHER INLAND ACROSS NORTHEASTERN MEXICO. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 105 MPH...165 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER GUSTS. EMILY IS A CATEGORY TWO HURRICANE ON THE SAFFIR-SIMPSON SCALE. RAPID WEAKENING IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS AS EMILY MOVES FARTHER INLAND OVER HIGHER TERRAIN. HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 70 MILES...110 KM... FROM THE CENTER...AND TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 160 MILES...260 KM...MAINLY NORTHEAST THROUGH EAST OF THE CENTER. RECENTLY...MATAMOROS MEXICO REPORTED A SUSTAINED WIND OF 46 MPH WITH A GUST TO 65 MPH...BROWNSVILLE TEXAS REPORTED A WIND GUST TO 63 MPH...AND LA PESCA MEXICO REPORTED A WIND GUST OF 49 MPH. THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 955 MB...28.20 INCHES. COASTAL STORM SURGE FLOODING OF 5 TO 9 FEET ABOVE NORMAL TIDE LEVELS...WITH HIGHER LEVELS IN BAYS...ACCOMPANIED BY LARGE AND DANGEROUS BATTERING WAVES...CAN BE EXPECTED ALONG THE NORTHEASTERN COAST OF MEXICO AND ALONG THE EXTREME SOUTHERN TEXAS COAST TODAY. STORM SURGE VALUES WILL GRADUALLY DECREASE BY THIS EVENING. THE HEAVIEST RAINFALL IS LIKELY OVER NORTHEASTERN MEXICO WHERE 5 TO 10 INCHES ARE LIKELY WITH ISOLATED MAXIMUM AMOUNTS UP TO 15 INCHES POSSIBLE IN THE MOUNTAINS. THESE RAINS COULD CAUSE LIFE-THREATENING FLASH FLOODS AND MUD SLIDES. RAINFALL ACCUMULATIONS OF 2 TO 4 INCHES ARE EXPECTED OVER SOUTHERN TEXAS AND THE LOWER RIO GRANDE VALLEY. ISOLATED TORNADOES ARE ALSO POSSIBLE OVER SOUTHERN TEXAS. REPEATING THE 10 AM CDT POSITION...25.0 N... 98.1 W. MOVEMENT TOWARD...WEST NEAR 10 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...105 MPH. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE... 955 MB. AN INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER AT 1 PM CDT FOLLOWED BY THE NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY AT 4 PM CDT. FORECASTER STEWART |
