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| #35105 (Received by flhurricane at: 7:45 AM 24.Jul.2005) TCDAT2 TROPICAL STORM GERT DISCUSSION NUMBER 4 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 5 AM EDT SUN JUL 24 2005 A SLEW OF DROPSONDES FROM A NOAA P-3 AIRCRAFT CONDUCTING A RESEARCH MISSION IN GERT INDICATE THAT THE LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER HAS REFORMED ABOUT 60 NMI NORTH OF THE PREVIOUS TRACK. THIS NEW CENTER IS RIGHT IN THE MIDDLE OF THE COLDEST CONVECTION...AND WHILE THE DROPSONDE DATA WITHIN THIS CONVECTION HAVE NOT INDICATED ANY STRENGTHENING YET...IN FACT THE WINDS AROUND THE NEW CENTER ARE QUITE LIGHT...THIS IMPROVEMENT IN THE ORGANIZATION OF THE CYCLONE SUGGESTS THAT SOME INTENSIFICATION IS LIKELY IN THE 12-18 HOURS PRIOR TO LANDFALL. THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS HELD AT 35 KT BASED ON THE EARLIER STEPPED-FREQUENCY MICROWAVE OBSERVATIONS. THERE HAS BEEN LITTLE CHANGE TO THE FORECAST TRACK EXCEPT TO ADJUST IT NORTHWARD TO ACCOMODATE THE NEW INITIAL POSITION. THE INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS 290/9...AND MODEL GUIDANCE INDICATES NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGE IN THIS MOTION PRIOR TO LANDFALL. ATTEMPTS TO COORDINATE WITH THE GOVERNMENT OF MEXICO AN EXTENSION OF THE TROPICAL STORM WARNING NORTHWARD WERE NOT SUCCESSFUL...BUT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE FROM PALMA SOLA TO LA PESCA. THE PRIMARY THREAT WITH THIS SYSTEM IS RAINFALL...AND RAINS FROM GERT WILL REACH SOME OF THE AREAS EARLIER AFFECTED BY EMILY. FORECASTER FRANKLIN FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INITIAL 24/0900Z 21.0N 95.4W 35 KT 12HR VT 24/1800Z 21.4N 96.8W 40 KT 24HR VT 25/0600Z 22.0N 98.5W 30 KT...INLAND 36HR VT 25/1800Z 22.8N 99.9W 25 KT...DISSIPATING 48HR VT 26/0600Z...DISSIPATED |
