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| #35121 (Received by flhurricane at: 10:31 AM 24.Jul.2005) TCDAT2 TROPICAL STORM GERT DISCUSSION NUMBER 5 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 11 AM EDT SUN JUL 24 2005 THE AIR FORCE HURRICANE HUNTERS HAVE BEEN FLYING BACK AND FORTH ACROSS THE AREA WHERE THE CENTER IS SUSPECTED TO BE LOCATED...BUT SO FAR THEY HAVE BEEN UNABLE TO FIND A DEFINITE CENTER OF CIRCULATION. RATHER...THE DATA FROM THE PLANE SUGGEST A BROAD AREA OF LIGHT WINDS AND FLAT PRESSURE GRADIENT. THE AIRCRAFT WINDS ALSO SUGGEST THE POSSIBILITY OF MULTIPLE CENTERS...ONE NEAR THE ADVISORY POSITION AND A SECOND NEAR THE OLD TRACK...I.E. FARTHER SOUTH. SINCE THE AIRCRAFT DATA ARE CERTAINLY NOT CONCLUSIVE...I WILL MAINTAIN CONTINUITY FROM THE PREVIOUS PACKAGE. THE ADVISORY LOCATION IS ALSO CONSISTENT WITH THE CLOUD SYSTEM CENTER ESTIMATE BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY. GERT IS IN A LOW-SHEAR ENVIRONMENT... AND IF THE CIRCULATION BECOMES BETTER ORGANIZED...THE STORM COULD STRENGTHEN JUST BEFORE REACHING THE COASTLINE LATER TODAY. INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS AN UNCERTAIN 285/8. A DEEP LAYER RIDGE TO THE NORTH OF GERT SHOULD STEER THE STORM GENERALLY WEST- NORTHWESTWARD FOR THE NEXT DAY OR SO. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST TRACK IS SIMILAR TO THE ONE FROM THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY. THE PRIMARY THREAT WITH THIS SYSTEM IS RAINFALL...AND RAINS FROM GERT WILL REACH SOME OF THE AREAS EARLIER AFFECTED BY EMILY...WHICH WOULD POSE AN INCREASED FLOOD THREAT. FORECASTER PASCH FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INITIAL 24/1500Z 21.1N 96.2W 35 KT 12HR VT 25/0000Z 21.7N 97.3W 40 KT 24HR VT 25/1200Z 22.3N 98.7W 30 KT...INLAND 36HR VT 26/0000Z 22.7N 100.0W 25 KT...INLAND...DISSIPATING 48HR VT 26/1200Z...DISSIPATED |
