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| #35125 (Received by flhurricane at: 10:34 AM 24.Jul.2005) TCDAT1 TROPICAL STORM FRANKLIN DISCUSSION NUMBER 13 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 11 AM EDT SUN JUL 24 2005 LATEST VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGES SUGGEST THAT NORTHWESTERLY SHEAR IS GETTING THE BEST OF FRANKLIN. THERE IS AN EXPOSED LOW-CLOUD CENTER WITH A DISORGANIZED BLOB OF DEEP CONVECTION TO THE SOUTHEAST. WATER VAPOR IMAGERY AND ANALYSES FROM THE UNIVERSITY OF WISCONSIN CIMSS SITE INDICATE SIGNIFICANT THAT FRANKLIN WILL BE MOVING INTO INCREASING SHEAR. WATER VAPOR LOOPS ALSO SHOW A BAND OF VERY DRY MID- TO UPPER-LEVEL AIR PRESSING SOUTHWARD INTO FRANKLIN. CURRENT INTENSITY ESTIMATE IS HELD AT 55 KT FOLLOWING DVORAK RULES BUT THIS IS PROBABLY GENEROUS. GIVEN THE UNFAVORABLE FACTORS IN THE ENVIRONMENT...WEAKENING IS FORECAST AS IN THE PREVIOUS PACKAGE. FRANKLIN IS FORECAST TO BE DISSIPATING OVER COOLER WATERS NEAR THE END OF THE PERIOD. HOWEVER...IF THE LOW-LEVEL CENTER REMAINS DETACHED FROM THE DEEP CONVECTION...THE TROPICAL CYCLONE COULD DISSIPATE SOONER THAN INDICATED HERE. INITIAL MOTION IS ABOUT 070/8. A MID-LEVEL TROUGH IS GRADUALLY LIFTING NORTHEASTWARD FROM THE VICINITY OF THE TROPICAL STORM...SO STEERING CURRENTS WILL PROBABLY WEAKEN. TRACK MODEL GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO SHOW WIDELY VARYING FORECASTS OF FORWARD SPEED...SO THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS A COMPROMISE OF VARIOUS POSSIBLE SCENARIOS. THIS IS SIMILAR TO...BUT A LITTLE SLOWER THAN...THE PREVIOUS NHC FORECAST TRACK. FORECASTER PASCH FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INITIAL 24/1500Z 30.9N 71.4W 55 KT 12HR VT 25/0000Z 31.1N 70.1W 50 KT 24HR VT 25/1200Z 31.5N 68.5W 45 KT 36HR VT 26/0000Z 32.0N 67.4W 45 KT 48HR VT 26/1200Z 32.5N 66.4W 40 KT 72HR VT 27/1200Z 34.0N 64.5W 35 KT 96HR VT 28/1200Z 36.0N 62.0W 30 KT 120HR VT 29/1200Z 39.0N 57.0W 25 KT...DISSIPATING |
