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| #35169 (Received by flhurricane at: 4:34 PM 24.Jul.2005) TCDAT1 TROPICAL STORM FRANKLIN DISCUSSION NUMBER 14 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 5 PM EDT SUN JUL 24 2005 NORTHWESTERLY SHEAR CONTINUES TO IMPACT THE STORM...AND THE LOW-CLOUD CENTER IS EXPOSED...OR NEAR THE NORTHWEST EDGE OF A RAGGED AREA OF DEEP CONVECTION. ADDITIONALLY...THE LOW-CLOUD LINES APPEAR TO HAVE BECOME SLIGHTLY LESS WELL DEFINED. CURRENT INTENSITY IS SET AT 45 KT FOLLOWING LATEST DVORAK ESTIMATES FROM TAFB MIAMI. DYNAMICAL MODEL GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THAT STRONG SHEAR WILL PERSIST...SO CONTINUED GRADUAL WEAKENING IS ANTICIPATED IN GENERAL AGREEMENT WITH THE LATEST SHIPS OUTPUT. THE CYCLONE IS PREDICTED TO BE DISSIPATING OVER COLDER WATERS BY 120 HOURS...AND IF THE SHEAR CAUSES EVEN MORE VERTICAL DECOUPLING OF THE SYSTEM...IT COULD DISSIPATE SOONER THAN THAT. HOWEVER...THESE SHEARED TROPICAL CYCLONES HAVE BEEN KNOWN TO BE TENACIOUS. INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS 060/8. GLOBAL MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW A MID-LEVEL TROUGH LIFTING AWAY FROM FRANKLIN WITH A DAY OR SO. THIS WILL WEAKEN THE STEERING CURRENTS. HOWEVER MOST OF THE TRACK MODELS MOVE THE SYSTEM FAR ENOUGH EAST-NORTHEASTWARD OR NORTHEASTWARD TO KEEP FRANKLIN FROM BEING BLOCKED BY A RIDGE THAT IS PREDICTED TO BUILD NEAR BERMUDA IN SEVERAL DAYS. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS A LITTLE TO THE LEFT OF AND JUST SLIGHTLY SLOWER THAN THE PREVIOUS ONE. FORECASTER PASCH FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INITIAL 24/2100Z 31.4N 70.9W 45 KT 12HR VT 25/0600Z 31.9N 69.4W 45 KT 24HR VT 25/1800Z 32.5N 67.7W 40 KT 36HR VT 26/0600Z 33.3N 66.4W 40 KT 48HR VT 26/1800Z 33.9N 65.4W 35 KT 72HR VT 27/1800Z 35.5N 63.5W 30 KT 96HR VT 28/1800Z 38.0N 60.0W 30 KT 120HR VT 29/1800Z 41.0N 55.0W 25 KT...DISSIPATING |
