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| #35268 (Received by flhurricane at: 4:40 AM 25.Jul.2005) TCDAT1 TROPICAL STORM FRANKLIN DISCUSSION NUMBER 16 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 5 AM EDT MON JUL 25 2005 THE CIRCULATION OF FRANKLIN HAS BEEN EXPOSED FOR ABOUT 24 HOURS NOW...WITH DEEP CONVECTION LOCATED ONLY IN THE SOUTHEAST QUADRANT NO CLOSER THAN ABOUT 75 NMI FROM THE CENTER. A QUIKSCAT PASS NEAR 10Z YESTERDAY HAD SOME 40 KT VECTORS...AND IT IS PRESUMED THAT THE CYCLONE HAS WEAKENED SINCE THEN. SHIP WCOB RECENTLY REPORTED 29 KT JUST OUTSIDE OF THE CONVECTION...SO FRANKLIN IS MOST LIKELY STILL A TROPICAL STORM. THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS LOWERED TO 35 KT...WHICH IS CONSISTENT WITH DVORAK CI NUMBERS FROM ALL AGENCIES. AFTER DRIFTING SOUTHWARD EARLIER IN THE EVENING...FRANKLIN HAS BEEN MOVING MOSTLY EASTWARD FOR THE LAST SEVERAL HOURS. THE INITIAL MOTION FOR THIS ADVISORY...070/4...IS A SMOOTHED VALUE OVER THE PAST 24 HOURS. THE MAJOR DYNAMICAL MODEL GUIDANCE HAS ACTUALLY COME INTO DECENT AGREEMENT ON WHAT LIES AHEAD. FRANKLIN HAS MISSED THE ADVANCING FRONTAL ZONE TO ITS NORTHEAST. A SECOND TROUGH/FRONTAL ZONE WILL MOVE INTO THE ATLANTIC IN A DAY OR SO...BUT THIS TOO PROBABLY WON'T PICK UP THE CYCLONE. A THIRD TROUGH IS LIKELY TO DO THE TRICK IN 72-96 HOURS...AND MOST GUIDANCE SHOWS FRANKLIN BECOMING ABSORBED WITHIN THIS TROUGH BEFORE THE END OF THE FORECAST PERIOD. A CONTINUED ERRATIC TRACK IS TO BE EXPECTED OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS...BUT THE OVERALL MOTION SHOULD BE TO THE EAST-NORTHEAST OR NORTHEAST. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST BLENDS THE SHALLOW BAM AND THE FSU SUPERENSEMBLE...AND IS CONSIDERABLY SLOWER AND TO THE LEFT OF THE PREVIOUS TRACK. EVEN WITH THIS ADJUSTMENT...MOST OF THE GUIDANCE LIES TO THE LEFT OF THE OFFICIAL FORECAST...AND THIS APPEARS TO LESSEN THE IMMEDIATE THREAT TO BERMUDA. NORTHWESTERLY SHEAR AND A DRY ENVIRONMENT ARE CURRENTLY RESPONSIBLE FOR THE WEAKENING TREND...AND I DON'T SEE ANYTHING IN THE WATER VAPOR IMAGERY TO MAKE ME THINK THIS WILL CHANGE MUCH OVER THE NEXT DAY OR TWO. HOWEVER...THE GFS...NOGAPS...AND UKMET ALL SEEM TO WANT TO LESSEN THE SHEAR OVER A SMALL AREA NEAR FRANKLIN...AND IF THIS HAPPENS...THE WATER UNDERNEATH WOULD BE WARM ENOUGH TO ALLOW SOME REDEVELOPMENT. EVEN SO...BOTH THE SHIPS AND GFDL GUIDANCE SHOW CONTINUED SLOW WEAKENING...AND THE OFFICIAL FORECAST PRESUMES THAT FRANKLIN WILL EITHER BE TOO DISRUPTED BY THEN TO TAKE ADVANTAGE OF THE LOWER SHEAR OR IT WILL NOT BE IN THE RIGHT PLACE. FORECASTER FRANKLIN FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INITIAL 25/0900Z 30.8N 70.3W 35 KT 12HR VT 25/1800Z 30.9N 69.9W 35 KT 24HR VT 26/0600Z 31.2N 69.0W 30 KT 36HR VT 26/1800Z 31.6N 68.5W 30 KT 48HR VT 27/0600Z 32.2N 68.0W 25 KT...DISSIPATING 72HR VT 28/0600Z 34.0N 66.5W 25 KT...REMNANT LOW 96HR VT 29/0600Z 37.5N 63.5W 25 KT...REMNANT LOW 120HR VT 30/0600Z...DISSIPATED |
