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| #35375 (Received by flhurricane at: 4:37 PM 25.Jul.2005) TCDAT1 TROPICAL STORM FRANKLIN DISCUSSION NUMBER 18 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 5 PM EDT MON JUL 25 2005 AIR FORCE HURRICANE HUNTERS INVESTIGATED FRANKLIN EARLIER TODAY AND FOUND THAT THE CENTRAL PRESSURE WAS A LITTLE LOWER THAN PREVIOUSLY THOUGHT AND...BASED ON DROPSONDE-DERIVED WIND PROFILES...MAXIMUM SURFACE WINDS WERE NEAR 40 KT. SINCE THEN...THE SATELLITE PRESENTATION HAS DETERIORATED MARKEDLY WITH AN INCREASING SEPARATION OF THE LOW-CLOUD CENTER FROM AN AREA OF DIMINISHING DEEP CONVECTION. THEREFORE...ALTHOUGH THE STORM WAS PROBABLY A LITTLE STRONGER AROUND 12Z TODAY...THE CURRENT INTENSITY IS ESTIMATED TO BE AROUND 35 KT. IT IS POSSIBLE THAT CONVECTION MAY REDEVELOP NEARER TO THE CENTER TONIGHT OR EARLY TOMORROW. HOWEVER...SIGNIFICANT RE-INTENSIFICATION IS NOT VERY LIKELY AND FRANKLIN SHOULD BE DISSIPATING DUE TO COOLER WATERS LATE IN THE PERIOD. THE OFFICIAL WIND SPEED FORECAST IS QUITE SIMILAR TO THE LATEST FSU SUPERENSEMBLE INTENSITY PREDICTION. FRANKLIN CONTINUES TO MOVE ERRATICALLY...TAKING ONE STEP BACKWARDS FOR EVERY FEW STEPS FORWARD. LATELY THE CENTER HAS BEEN MEANDERING IN MORE OR LESS THE SAME LOCATION...SO STATIONARY IS THE BEST BET FOR INITIAL MOTION. STEERING CURRENTS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN WEAK FOR THE NEXT DAY OR SO...AND THE OFFICIAL TRACK FORECAST SHOWS A NORTHEASTWARD DRIFT EARLY IN THE PERIOD. GLOBAL MODELS BUILD A RIDGE IN THE VICINITY OF 60W IN 2-3 DAYS...SO A MORE DETERMINED MOTION...TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHEAST...IS LIKELY TO COMMENCE BY THAT TIME. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST TRACK IS ADJUSTED A LITTLE TO THE LEFT OF THE PREVIOUS ONE...BUT IS NEAR THE EASTERN EDGE OF THE DYNAMICAL TRACK MODEL SUITE. ALTHOUGH THIS LESSENS THE POTENTIAL THREAT FOR BERMUDA...INTERESTS THERE SHOULD CONTINUE TO MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF FRANKLIN OVER THE NEXT DAY OR TWO. FORECASTER PASCH FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INITIAL 25/2100Z 30.7N 69.5W 35 KT 12HR VT 26/0600Z 31.2N 69.4W 35 KT 24HR VT 26/1800Z 31.6N 69.0W 35 KT 36HR VT 27/0600Z 32.3N 68.5W 35 KT 48HR VT 27/1800Z 33.5N 68.0W 30 KT 72HR VT 28/1800Z 36.0N 67.0W 25 KT...DISSIPATING 96HR VT 29/1800Z 40.0N 63.0W 25 KT...REMNANT LOW 120HR VT 30/1800Z...DISSIPATED |
