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| #355028 (Received by flhurricane at: 10:43 PM 25.Jun.2010) TCDAT1 TROPICAL DEPRESSION ONE DISCUSSION NUMBER 2 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL012010 1100 PM EDT FRI JUN 25 2010 WHILE DEEP CONVECTION HAS INCREASED NEAR THE CENTER OF THE CYCLONE OVER THE PAST FEW HOURS...THE LOW-LEVEL CENTER IN AN 0010 UTC SSMIS PASS APPEARED DISPLACED A LITTLE TO THE NORTHEAST OF THE DEEP CONVECTION. THIS TILT IS CONSISTENT WITH AROUND 10 KT OF NORTHERLY OR NORTHEASTERLY SHEAR ANALYZED OVER THE CYCLONE BY THE SHIPS MODEL AND UW-CIMSS. THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS HELD AT 30 KT IN AGREEMENT WITH THE SAB DVORAK ESTIMATE AT 0000 UTC. AN AIR FORCE RESERVE HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT IS SCHEDULED TO INVESTIGATE THE DEPRESSION LATER TONIGHT. CONDITIONS STILL APPEAR FAVORABLE FOR INTENSIFICATION PRIOR TO THE DEPRESSION REACHING LAND IN ABOUT 24 HOURS. WEAKENING IS THEN EXPECTED AS THE CYCLONE MOVES ACROSS THE YUCATAN PENINSULA...WITH AN OPPORTUNITY FOR RESTRENGTHENING ONCE THE SYSTEM MOVES INTO THE SOUTHERN GULF OF MEXICO. THE OFFICIAL INTENSITY FORECAST IS CLOSE TO THE ICON INTENSITY CONSENSUS...AND IS ROUGHLY BETWEEN THE STRONGER GFDL AND LGEM MODELS AND THE THE WEAKER HWRF AND SHIPS MODELS BY DAY 5. THE INITIAL MOTION IS QUITE UNCERTAIN...BUT THE BEST LONG-TERM ESTIMATE IS 295/08. FOR THE NEXT 24 TO 36 HOURS THE DEPRESSION IS EXPECTED TO MOVE WEST-NORTHWESTWARD TO THE SOUTH OF A MID-LEVEL RIDGE CENTERED ALONG THE U.S. GULF COAST. AS THE RIDGE WEAKENS IN 36 TO 48 HOURS...THE CYCLONE IS EXPECTED TO TURN NORTHWESTWARD AFTER IT CROSSES THE YUCATAN PENINSULA. BY DAYS 3 TO 5 MOST OF THE TRACK GUIDANCE HAS SHIFTED WESTWARD...SUGGESTING THAT THE CYCLONE WILL NOT GAIN ENOUGH LATITUDE TO INTERACT WITH A LONGWAVE TROUGH AMPLIFYING OVER EASTERN NORTH AMERICA. ONLY THE GFDL MODEL AND THE GFS ENSEMBLE MEAN SHOW A NORTHWARD TURN LATE IN THE PERIOD. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST HAS BEEN SHIFTED A LITTLE TO THE LEFT OF THE PREVIOUS NHC FORECAST BUT THE REMAINS A ON THE RIGHT SIDE OF MOST OF THE DYNAMICAL GUIDANCE. THE FORECAST SPEED IS VERY SLOW BY DAY 5 GIVEN THE LARGE SPREAD OF THE GUIDANCE AT THAT TIME. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INITIAL 26/0300Z 16.7N 84.4W 30 KT 12HR VT 26/1200Z 17.4N 85.8W 40 KT 24HR VT 27/0000Z 18.4N 87.7W 45 KT 36HR VT 27/1200Z 19.5N 89.1W 35 KT...INLAND 48HR VT 28/0000Z 20.8N 90.5W 35 KT...OVER WATER 72HR VT 29/0000Z 22.5N 92.0W 45 KT 96HR VT 30/0000Z 24.0N 93.5W 50 KT 120HR VT 01/0000Z 24.5N 94.5W 50 KT $$ FORECASTER BRENNAN |
