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| #35521 (Received by flhurricane at: 10:34 AM 26.Jul.2005) TCDAT1 TROPICAL STORM FRANKLIN DISCUSSION NUMBER 21 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 11 AM EDT TUE JUL 26 2005 THE LOW-LEVEL CENTER OF FRANKLIN HAS BECOME EXPOSED AGAIN TO THE NORTHWEST OF AN AREA OF RAPIDLY WEAKENING CONVECTION. THE INTENSITY IS BEING MAINTAINED AT 35 KT BASED ON A DVORAK SATELLITE ESTIMATE OF 35 KT FROM TAFB AND SEVERAL 30 KT UNFLAGGED WIND VECTORS IN THE SOUTHWEST QUADRANT AS NOTED IN A 1042Z QUIKSCAT OVERPASS. THE EASTERN SEMICIRCLE OF THE CYCLONE WAS NOT SAMPLED BY THE QUIKSCAT SATELLITE. HOWEVER...SINCE THAT TIME...CLOUD TOPS IN THE SOUTHEAST QUADRANT HAVE WARMED SIGNIFICANTLY AND THE 35-KT INTENSITY MAY BE A LITTLE GENEROUS. UPPER-LEVEL OUTFLOW REMAINS RESTRICTED IN THE NORTHERN SEMICIRCLE. THE MOTION OVER THE PAST 24 HOURS HAS BEEN 060/04...BUT THE TREND FOR THE NEXT 12-24 HOURS SHOULD BE NORTH OR NORTH-NORTHEASTWARD... SO AN INITIAL MOTION OF 030/05 HAS BEEN ASSIGNED FOR THIS ADVISORY. FRANKLIN MAY MOVE ERRATICALLY...INCLUDING SEVERAL WOBBLES...OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS...BUT THE OVERALL TREND SHOULD BE SLOWLY NORTHWARD. AFTER THAT...THE MID-LATITUDE RIDGE TO THE NORTH IS EXPECTED TO SLOWLY ERODE IN ADVANCE OF A STRONG SHORTWAVE TROUGH CURRENTLY LOCATED OVER THE UPPER-MIDWESTERN U.S. BY 48 HOURS...THE SHORTWAVE TROUGH AND ASSOCIATED FRONTAL SYSTEM ARE EXPECTED TO INDUCE A FASTER MOTION TO THE NORTH-NORTHEAST AND NORTHEAST...UNTIL FRANKLIN BECOMES ABSORBED BY THE FRONATL SYSTEM BY 72 HOURS. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST TRACK HAS BEEN ADJUSTED SLIGHTLY EASTWARD OF THE PREVIOUS TRACK... MAINLY DUE TO THE MORE EASTWARD INITIAL POSITION ...AND IS A ALSO LITTLE EAST OF THE NHC MODEL CONSENSUS. FRANKLIN IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN IN AN UNFAVORABLE UPPER-LEVEL ENVIRONMENT FOR AT LEAST THE NEXT 24 HOURS...SO THERE MAY BE SOME ADDITIONAL WEAKENING AND FRANKLIN COULD BECOME A DEPRESSION. BY 36-48 HOURS...THOUGH...THE UPPER-LEVEL SHEAR IS FORECAST TO BRIEFLY WEAKEN...WHICH MAY ALLOW FOR SOME MODEST RE-INTENSIFICATION TO OCCUR BEFORE THE SHEAR INCREASES AGAIN AS A FRONTAL SYSTEM APPROACHES AND EVENTUALLY ABSORBS THE CYCLONE. THIS IS CONSISTENT WITH BOTH THE SHIPS AND GFDL INTENSITY FORECASTS. FORECASTER STEWART FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INITIAL 26/1500Z 32.0N 67.9W 35 KT 12HR VT 27/0000Z 32.8N 67.8W 35 KT 24HR VT 27/1200Z 33.8N 67.7W 35 KT 36HR VT 28/0000Z 35.2N 67.5W 40 KT 48HR VT 28/1200Z 37.1N 66.7W 40 KT 72HR VT 29/1200Z 40.0N 63.5W 30 KT...BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL 96HR VT 30/1200Z...ABSORBED BY FRONTAL SYSTEM |
