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| #355718 (Received by flhurricane at: 10:46 AM 28.Jun.2010) TCDAT1 TROPICAL STORM ALEX DISCUSSION NUMBER 12 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL012010 1000 AM CDT MON JUN 28 2010 ALTHOUGH THE CLOUD PATTERN OF ALEX HAS BECOME A LITTLE DISTORTED THIS MORNING...THE CYCLONE HAS CONTINUED TO GRADUALLY INTENSIFY. AN AIR FORCE RESERVE RECONNAISSANCE PLANE FOUND PEAK FLIGHT-LEVEL WINDS OF 66 KT...SFMR VALUES OF 51 KT...AND A DECREASE IN PRESSURE TO 989 MB. THUS THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS INCREASED A BIT TO 50 KT. THE INITIAL MOTION IS 330/5...TO THE RIGHT OF PREVIOUS ESTIMATES. AN UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH SEEN TO THE NORTH OF THE STORM MAY BE CONTRIBUTING TO THE MORE POLEWARD MOTION BY CAUSING A WEAKENING OF THE RIDGE OVER THE GULF COAST. THIS TROUGH IS FORECAST TO LIFT OUT OF THE AREA IN A DAY OR SO...WHICH SHOULD ALLOW RIDGING TO BUILD BACK IN SLIGHTLY AND STEER ALEX MORE TOWARD THE NORTHWEST. AFTER THAT TIME...THE STRENGTH OF A RIDGE OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS SHOULD HELP DETERMINE WHETHER THE TROPICAL CYCLONE CONTINUES A NORTHWESTWARD MOTION OR MAKES MORE OF A TURN TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST. THE MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN PRETTY GOOD AGREEMENT THROUGH 48 HOURS...THEN HAS A BIT MORE SPREAD. THERE HAS BEEN A SUBTLE SHIFT NORTHWARD WITH SOME OF THE 06Z GUIDANCE...AND THE NHC FORECAST HAS BEEN ADJUSTED IN THAT DIRECTION. SOME NORTHWESTERLY SHEAR IS CURRENTLY AFFECTING ALEX...ALTHOUGH THIS HAS NOT PREVENTED THE STORM FROM SLOWLY DEEPENING. THIS SHEAR IS FORECAST TO ABATE BY TOMORROW AS THE UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH PULLS OUT OF THE GULF OF MEXICO...WHICH COULD THEN ALLOW FOR MORE SIGNIFICANT STRENGTHENING. THE STATISTICAL MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW MORE INTENSIFICATION OF ALEX THAN THE DYNAMICAL GUIDANCE...WHICH SEEMS REASONABLE GIVEN THE LIKELY ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS. THE NHC FORECAST IS CLOSE TO THE STATISTICAL MODELS AND THE PREVIOUS FORECAST. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INITIAL 28/1500Z 20.3N 91.7W 50 KT 12HR VT 29/0000Z 21.1N 92.1W 55 KT 24HR VT 29/1200Z 22.3N 92.9W 65 KT 36HR VT 30/0000Z 23.5N 94.2W 75 KT 48HR VT 30/1200Z 24.3N 95.5W 85 KT 72HR VT 01/1200Z 25.5N 97.7W 80 KT...INLAND 96HR VT 02/1200Z 26.5N 99.5W 35 KT...INLAND 120HR VT 03/1200Z 27.5N 101.5W 20 KT...DISSIPATING INLAND $$ FORECASTER BLAKE/BRENNAN |
