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| #355811 (Received by flhurricane at: 4:40 PM 28.Jun.2010) TCDAT1 TROPICAL STORM ALEX DISCUSSION NUMBER 13 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL012010 400 PM CDT MON JUN 28 2010 DATA FROM THE AIR FORCE RESERVE HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT SUGGEST THAT THE INTENSITY OF ALEX HAS CHANGED LITTLE OVER THE PAST FEW HOURS. THE LAST PRESSURE MEASURED WAS 990 MB...UP JUST A BIT FROM THIS MORNING. DATA FROM THE SFMR ON THE AIRCRAFT SUPPORT MAINTAINING THE INTENSITY AT 50 KT. ALEX IS EXPERIENCING NORTHERLY WIND SHEAR OF ABOUT 10 TO 15 KNOTS ACCORDING TO THE SHIPS MODEL AND ANALYSES FROM UW-CIMSS. THE SHEAR IN COMBINATION WITH SOME DRY AIR IN THE NORTHERN PART OF THE CIRCULATION HAVE LIKELY BEEN RESPONSIBLE FOR THE SPOTTY NATURE OF THE DEEP CONVECTION NEAR THE CENTER OF ALEX TODAY. ALSO...SINCE ALEX HAS BEEN SITUATED OVER THE SHALLOW SHELF WATERS WEST OF THE YUCATAN ALL DAY...SOME UPWELLING OF COOL WATER COULD BE HINDERING DEVELOPMENT FOR THE TIME BEING. ONCE THE MID TO UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE NORTHERN GULF OF MEXICO MOVES AWAY FROM ALEX...THE ENVIRONMENT SHOULD BECOME MORE FAVORABLE FOR INTENSIFICATION AS THE SHEAR DECREASES AND ALEX MOVES TOWARD A WARM EDDY IN THE SOUTHWESTERN GULF. THE OFFICIAL NHC INTENSITY FORECAST IS SIMILAR TO THE PREVIOUS PACKAGE...AND IS CLOSE TO A BLEND OF THE SHIPS AND LGEM MODELS...WHICH ARE THE STRONGEST OF THE INTENSITY MODELS. ALSO...ALEX COULD STRENGTHEN A LITTLE MORE BEFORE LANDFALL BEYOND WHAT IS SHOWN IN THE 48-HOUR FORECAST...BUT NONE OF THE GUIDANCE SHOWS ALEX REACHING MAJOR HURRICANE INTENSITY AT THIS TIME. ALEX HAS MOVED LITTLE OVER THE PAST FEW HOURS...BUT THE BEST LONG-TERM INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHWEST... 330 DEGREES...AT 4 KNOTS. AFTER THE UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE NORTHERN GULF MOVES EAST...THE GLOBAL MODELS ARE NOW IN GENERALLY GOOD AGREEMENT IN BUILDING A RIDGE TO THE NORTH OF ALEX. THIS SHOULD RESULT IN A TURN TOWARD THE NORTHWEST AND THEN TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS...WITH AN INCREASE IN FORWARD SPEED. COMPARED TO YESTERDAY...THE TRACK GUIDANCE IS IN BETTER AGREEMENT ON THIS SCENARIO AND HAS GENERALLY TRENDED SOUTHWARD AND FASTER WITH THE FORWARD SPEED. ACCORDINGLY...THE OFFICIAL FORECAST HAS BEEN ADJUSTED TO THE LEFT AND SHOWS AN INCREASE IN FORWARD SPEED...BUT NOW LIES TO THE RIGHT OF MOST OF THE DYNAMICAL MODELS. A HURRICANE WARNING MAY BE REQUIRED FOR A PORTION OF THE HURRICANE WATCH AREA TONIGHT. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INITIAL 28/2100Z 20.5N 91.8W 50 KT 12HR VT 29/0600Z 21.5N 92.4W 60 KT 24HR VT 29/1800Z 22.9N 93.7W 65 KT 36HR VT 30/0600Z 23.8N 95.1W 75 KT 48HR VT 30/1800Z 24.5N 96.4W 80 KT 72HR VT 01/1800Z 25.5N 99.5W 60 KT...INLAND 96HR VT 02/1800Z 26.0N 101.0W 25 KT...INLAND 120HR VT 03/1800Z...DISSIPATED $$ FORECASTER BRENNAN |
