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| #356036 (Received by flhurricane at: 10:58 AM 29.Jun.2010) TCDAT1 TROPICAL STORM ALEX DISCUSSION NUMBER 16 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL012010 1000 AM CDT TUE JUN 29 2010 SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS THAT ALEX HAS A SOMEWHAT RAGGED APPEARANCE THIS MORNING...WITH A CONVECTIVE BURST OCCURRING JUST EAST OF THE CENTER AND AN APPARENT DRY SLOT WEST OF THE CENTER. AN AIR FORCE RESERVE HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT REPORTED 850 MB FLIGHT-LEVEL WINDS OF 70 KT AND SFMR WINDS OF 57 KT IN THE NORTHEAST QUADRANT... THE LATTER ABOUT 20 NM FROM THE CENTER. THE MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE WAS 982 MB. BASED ON THE AIRCRAFT WINDS...THE INITIAL INTENSITY REMAINS 60 KT. THE CIRRUS OUTFLOW IS FAIR TO THE NORTH AND EAST...AND POOR ELSEWHERE. ALEX HAS TURNED LEFT AND ACCELERATED DURING THE PAST SEVERAL HOURS. THE 12 HR MOTION IS 325/10...AND THE SHORT-TERM MOTION MAY BE FASTER. RAWINSONDE DATA THIS MORNING SHOW HEIGHT RISES FROM 850-500 MB OVER LOUISIANA AND TEXAS...INDICATING THE LOW/MID-LEVEL RIDGE IN THIS AREA IS STRENGTHENING AS FORECAST BY THE LARGE-SCALE MODELS. THE TRACK GUIDANCE IS IN GOOD AGREEMENT THAT ALEX WILL GRADUALLY TURN WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AND WESTWARD ON THE SOUTH SIDE OF THIS RIDGE AS IT STRENGTHENS FURTHER DURING THE NEXT 24-48 HR. INDEED...THE ECMWF AND THE NAM SUGGEST ALEX COULD TURN SOUTH OF WEST AFTER IT MAKES LANDFALL. THE NEW FORECAST TRACK IS SHIFTED A LITTLE TO THE SOUTH AND IS FASTER THAN THE PREVIOUS TRACK BASED ON CURRENT POSITION AND MOTION. HOWEVER...IT STILL LIES NORTH OF THE CONSENSUS MODELS AND THE CENTER OF THE GUIDANCE ENVELOPE. OF THE DYNAMICAL GUIDANCE...ONLY THE HWRF AND NOGAPS ARE CURRENTLY NORTH OF THE OFFICIAL FORECAST. THE CENTRAL CONVECTIVE BURST IS PRODUCING TOPS COLDER THAN -80C...AND THE AIRCRAFT IS REPORTING A PARTIAL EYEWALL. THESE ARE SIGNS THAT ALEX COULD STRENGTHEN SOON. ON THE OTHER HAND...THE OUTFLOW IS RESTRICTED ON THE WEST SIDE WHERE THERE IS APPARENTLY SOME DRY AIR ENTRAINMENT. IN ADDITION...THE GFDL...HWRF...AND GFDN DO NOT FORECAST SIGNIFICANT STRENGTHENING DESPITE A SEEMINGLY FAVORABLE LIGHT-SHEAR WARM-WATER ENVIRONMENT. THE SHIPS AND LGEM MODELS CONTINUE TO FORECAST ALEX TO BECOME A HURRICANE...AND THE NEW INTENSITY FORECAST FOLLOWS SUIT. THE NEW FORECAST IS AN UPDATE OF THE PREVIOUS FORECAST AND LIES AT THE UPPER EDGE OF THE INTENSITY GUIDANCE ENVELOPE. THE AIRCRAFT DATA SHOW THAT THE 34 KT WIND RADII HAVE EXPANDED OVER ALL QUADRANTS EXCEPT THE SOUTHWEST. BETWEEN THIS AND THE FASTER FORWARD MOTION...THERE IS NOW ABOUT 12 HOURS LESS TIME TO MAKE PREPARATIONS BEFORE THE ONSET OF TROPICAL-STORM FORCE WINDS IN THE WARNING AREA THAN COMPARED TO THE PREVIOUS FORECAST. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INITIAL 29/1500Z 22.7N 93.1W 60 KT 12HR VT 30/0000Z 23.7N 94.0W 65 KT 24HR VT 30/1200Z 24.7N 95.5W 75 KT 36HR VT 01/0000Z 25.2N 97.0W 80 KT 48HR VT 01/1200Z 25.7N 98.7W 50 KT 72HR VT 02/1200Z 26.0N 101.5W 25 KT...DISSIPATING INLAND 96HR VT 03/1200Z...DISSIPATED $$ FORECASTER BEVEN |
