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| #356064 (Received by flhurricane at: 1:46 PM 29.Jun.2010) TCPAT1 BULLETIN TROPICAL STORM ALEX INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER 16A NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL012010 100 PM CDT TUE JUN 29 2010 ...ALEX MOVING NORTHWESTWARD WITH LITTLE CHANGE IN STRENGTH... SUMMARY OF 100 PM CDT...1800 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...22.9N 93.6W ABOUT 270 MI...435 KM ESE OF LA PESCA MEXICO ABOUT 320 MI...515 KM SE OF BROWNSVILLE TEXAS MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...70 MPH...110 KM/HR PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 315 DEGREES AT 13 MPH...21 KM/HR MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...981 MB...28.97 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY... NONE. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT... A HURRICANE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR... * THE COAST OF TEXAS SOUTH OF BAFFIN BAY TO THE MOUTH OF THE RIO GRANDE * THE COAST OF MEXICO FROM THE MOUTH OF THE RIO GRANDE TO LA CRUZ A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IN IN EFFECT FOR... * THE COAST OF TEXAS FROM BAFFIN BAY TO PORT OCONNOR FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA IN THE UNITED STATES...INCLUDING POSSIBLE INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR LOCAL NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORECAST OFFICE. FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA OUTSIDE UNITED STATES...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR NATIONAL METEOROLOGICAL SERVICE. DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK ------------------------------ AT 100 PM CDT...1800 UTC...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM ALEX WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 22.9 NORTH...LONGITUDE 93.6 WEST. ALEX IS NOW MOVING TOWARD THE NORTHWEST NEAR 13 MPH...21 KM/HR. A GRADUAL TURN TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST IS EXPECTED ON WEDNESDAY. ON THE FORECAST TRACK...THE CENTER OF ALEX WILL APPROACH THE COAST OF NORTHEASTERN MEXICO AND SOUTHERN TEXAS ON WEDNESDAY AND MAKE LANDFALL WEDNESDAY NIGHT. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 70 MPH...110 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER GUSTS. STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT 36 HR OR SO BEFORE LANDFALL...AND ALEX IS LIKELY TO BECOME A HURRICANE LATER TODAY. TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 140 MILES...220 KM FROM THE CENTER. NOAA BUOY 42055...LOCATED ABOUT 65 MILES SOUTHWEST OF THE CENTER...RECENTLY REPORTED 1-MINUTE MEAN WINDS OF 38 MPH... 61 KM/HR...AND A WIND GUST OF 45 MPH...72 KM/HR. THE MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE REPORTED BY AN AIR FORCE RESERVE HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT IS 981 MB...28.97 INCHES. HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- RAINFALL...ALEX IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE TOTAL RAINFALL ACCUMULATIONS OF 6 TO 12 INCHES OVER PORTIONS OF NORTHEASTERN MEXICO AND SOUTHERN TEXAS...WITH ISOLATED MAXIMUM AMOUNTS OF 20 INCHES. ADDITIONAL RAINFALL ACCUMULATIONS OF 2 TO 4 INCHES ARE POSSIBLE OVER PORTIONS OF SOUTHERN MEXICO TODAY. THESE RAINS COULD CAUSE LIFE-THREATENING FLASH FLOODS AND MUD SLIDES...ESPECIALLY IN MOUNTAINOUS TERRAIN. WIND...TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO APPROACH THE COAST WITHIN THE HURRICANE AND TROPICAL STORM WARNING AREAS ON WEDNESDAY...MAKING OUTSIDE PREPARATIONS DIFFICULT OR DANGEROUS. STORM SURGE...A DANGEROUS STORM SURGE WILL RAISE WATER LEVELS BY AS MUCH AS 3 TO 5 FEET ABOVE GROUND LEVEL ALONG THE IMMEDIATE COAST NEAR AND TO THE NORTH OF WHERE THE CENTER MAKES LANDFALL. THE SURGE COULD PENETRATE INLAND AS FAR AS SEVERAL MILES FROM THE SHORE WITH DEPTH GENERALLY DECREASING AS THE WATER MOVES INLAND. NEAR THE COAST...THE SURGE WILL BE ACCOMPANIED BY LARGE AND DESTRUCTIVE WAVES. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY...400 PM CDT. $$ FORECASTER BEVEN |
