Flhurricane.com - Central Florida Hurricane Center - Tracking Storms since 1995Hurricanes Without the Hype! Since 1995
The Atlantic is quiet
|
Show Selection: |
| #356128 (Received by flhurricane at: 4:49 PM 29.Jun.2010) TCDAT1 TROPICAL STORM ALEX DISCUSSION NUMBER 17 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL012010 400 PM CDT TUE JUN 29 2010 AN AIR FORCE RESERVE HURRICANE HUNTER REPORTED A CENTRAL PRESSURE OF 981 MB AT 1716 UTC...WITH 850 MB FLIGHT-LEVEL WINDS OF 68 KT AND SFMR WINDS NEAR 55 KT. SINCE THEN...SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS THAT ALEX IS BECOMING BETTER ORGANIZED...WITH A WELL DEFINED CURVED CONVECTIVE BAND WRAPPING ALL THE WAY AROUND THE CENTER. THIS PATTERN YIELDS SATELLITE INTENSITY ESTIMATES OF 65 KT FROM TAFB AND SAB. THE INITIAL INTENSITY REMAINS 60 KT FOR THIS ADVISORY...BUT IT IS ANTICIPATED THAT THE NEXT AIRCRAFT MISSION NEAR 0000 UTC WILL FIND THAT ALEX IS A HURRICANE. ALEX HAS TURNED FARTHER TO THE LEFT AND THE INITIAL MOTION IS NOW 310/11. THERE IS LITTLE CHANGE TO THE OVERALL FORECAST PHILOSOPHY...AS THE TRACK GUIDANCE REMAINS IN GOOD AGREEMENT THAT ALEX WILL GRADUALLY TURN WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AND WESTWARD ON THE SOUTH SIDE OF THE STRENGTHENING LOW/MID-LEVEL RIDGE OVER THE SOUTHERN PLAINS AND NORTHWESTERN GULF COAST. HOWEVER...THE CYCLONE HAS TURNED LEFT MORE THAN PREVIOUSLY FORECAST...AND THIS REQUIRES THE NEW FORECAST TRACK TO BE SHIFTED SOUTHWARD FROM THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY. THE NEW TRACK STILL LIES TO THE NORTH OF THE CONSENSUS MODELS AND THE CENTER OF THE GUIDANCE ENVELOPE...AND THE ONLY DYNAMICAL MODEL NORTH OF THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS THE HWRF. THUS... THERE IS STILL ROOM FOR SOME ADDITIONAL SOUTHWARD ADJUSTMENT IF NECESSARY. ALEX IS NOW IN A LOW-SHEAR ENVIRONMENT OVER WARM SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES...WHICH APPEARS FAVORABLE FOR STRENGTHENING UNTIL LANDFALL. ON THE OTHER HAND...THE CIRRUS OUTFLOW FROM THE CENTRAL CONVECTION IS POOR AT THIS TIME...AND LARGE SLOTS BETWEEN THE CONVECTIVE BANDS SUGGEST THAT SOME DRY AIR ENTRAINMENT IS STILL OCCURRING. THE GFDL...GFDN...AND HWRF ARE SHOWING MORE INTENSIFICATION THAN EARLIER...BUT NONE OF THEM FORECAST A PEAK INTENSITY OF MORE THAN 80 KT. THESE MODELS ARE CLOSE TO THE SHIPS/LGEM MODELS AND THE PREVIOUS INTENSITY FORECAST...SO THERE IS NO CHANGE TO THE INTENSITY FORECAST. WHILE NOT EXPLICITLY IN THE FORECAST... IT IS LIKELY THAT ALEX WILL REACH A PEAK INTENSITY OF 80-85 KT BEFORE IT MAKES LANDFALL BETWEEN THE 24 AND 36 HR FORECAST POINTS. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INITIAL 29/2100Z 23.2N 94.0W 60 KT 12HR VT 30/0600Z 23.9N 95.1W 65 KT 24HR VT 30/1800Z 24.5N 96.5W 75 KT 36HR VT 01/0600Z 24.9N 98.1W 75 KT...INLAND 48HR VT 01/1800Z 25.2N 99.9W 40 KT...INLAND 72HR VT 02/1800Z 25.5N 103.0W 25 KT...DISSIPATING INLAND 96HR VT 03/1800Z...DISSIPATED $$ FORECASTER BEVEN |
