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| #356343 (Received by flhurricane at: 10:49 AM 30.Jun.2010) TCDAT1 HURRICANE ALEX DISCUSSION NUMBER 20 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL012010 1000 AM CDT WED JUN 30 2010 SATELLITE PRESENTATION HAS IMPROVED THIS MORNING WITH T-NUMBERS FROM TAFB AND SAB REACHING 5.0 AND 5.5 ON THE DVORAK SCALE AND THE MINIMUM PRESSURE HAS BEEN OSCILLATING BETWEEN 958 MB AND 961 MB. HOWEVER...BOTH FLIGHT LEVEL WINDS AND SFMR DATA SUPPORT AN INITIAL INTENSITY OF ONLY 70 KNOTS AT THIS TIME. LATEST RECONNAISSANCE DATA SHOW THAT THERE ARE TWO WIND MAXIMA ON THE NORTHEAST QUADRANT OF THE HURRICANE AND WINDS ARE SPREAD OUT IN OTHER QUADRANTS. GIVEN SUCH A LOW MINIMUM PRESSURE...THE CURRENT SATELLITE PRESENTATION AND A FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT FOR INTENSIFICATION...THE WINDS SHOULD INCREASE TODAY AND ALEX COULD REACH CATEGORY TWO BEFORE LANDFALL. FIXES FROM THE AIRCRAFT INDICATE THAT ALEX IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTHWEST OR 320 DEGREES AT 6 KNOTS. THE CURRENT WEAKNESS IN THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE TO THE NORTH OF THE CYCLONE SHOULD BE REPLACED BY A RIDGE SOON. THIS FLOW PATTERN SHOULD FORCE ALEX ON A MORE WESTWARD TRACK LATER TODAY AS INDICATED IN THE OFFICIAL FORECAST. IN FACT...MOST OF THE DYNAMICAL GUIDANCE FORECAST A SHARP TURN TO THE WEST OR EVEN SOUTH OF DUE WEST DEPENDING UPON THE FORECAST STRENGTH OF THE RIDGE IN EACH MODEL. THIS TRACK SHOULD BRING THE CORE OF THE HURRICANE TO THE COAST WITHIN THE WARNING AREA LATE TONIGHT OR EARLY THURSDAY. HOWEVER...ALEX IS A LARGE HURRICANE WITH TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTENDING A GREAT DISTANCE FROM THE CENTER. RADAR DATA SHOW THAT STRONG SQUALLS AND GUSTY WINDS ARE ALREADY NEARING THE SOUTH TEXAS AND NORTHERN MEXICO COASTS. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INITIAL 30/1500Z 23.8N 95.5W 70 KT 12HR VT 01/0000Z 24.1N 96.7W 85 KT 24HR VT 01/1200Z 24.5N 98.5W 45 KT...INLAND 36HR VT 02/0000Z 24.5N 101.0W 25 KT...INLAND 48HR VT 02/1200Z...DISSIPATED $$ FORECASTER AVILA |
