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| #356477 (Received by flhurricane at: 4:37 PM 30.Jun.2010) TCPAT1 BULLETIN HURRICANE ALEX ADVISORY NUMBER 21 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL012010 400 PM CDT WED JUN 30 2010 ...ALEX HEADING TOWARD NORTHEAST MEXICO WITH 90 MPH WINDS... SUMMARY OF 400 PM CDT...2100 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...24.5N 96.8W ABOUT 80 MI...130 KM NE OF LA PESCA MEXICO ABOUT 105 MI...170 KM SSE OF BROWNSVILLE TEXAS MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...90 MPH...150 KM/HR PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 270 DEGREES AT 13 MPH...20 KM/HR MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...959 MB...28.32 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY... NONE. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT... A HURRICANE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR... * THE COAST OF TEXAS SOUTH OF BAFFIN BAY TO THE MOUTH OF THE RIO GRANDE * THE COAST OF MEXICO FROM THE MOUTH OF THE RIO GRANDE TO LA CRUZ A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IN IN EFFECT FOR... * THE COAST OF TEXAS FROM BAFFIN BAY TO PORT OCONNOR * THE COAST OF MEXICO SOUTH OF LA CRUZ TO CABO ROJO FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA IN THE UNITED STATES...INCLUDING POSSIBLE INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR LOCAL NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORECAST OFFICE. FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA OUTSIDE UNITED STATES...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR NATIONAL METEOROLOGICAL SERVICE. DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK ------------------------------ AT 400 PM CDT...2100 UTC...THE EYE OF HURRICANE ALEX WAS LOCATED BY A RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT AND NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RADAR FROM BROWNSVILLE NEAR LATITUDE 24.5 NORTH...LONGITUDE 96.8 WEST. ALEX HAS INCREASED ITS FORWARD SPEED AND IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST NEAR 13 MPH...20 KM/HR. THIS GENERAL MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE UNTIL LANDFALL IN NORTHEASTERN MEXICO TONIGHT. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS HAVE INCREASED TO NEAR 90 MPH...150 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER GUSTS. ALEX IS A CATEGORY ONE HURRICANE ON THE SAFFIR-SIMPSON HURRICANE WIND SCALE. SOME ADDITIONAL STRENGTHENING IS POSSIBLE DURING THE NEXT FEW HOURS BEFORE LANDFALL. A GRADUAL WEAKENING IS FORECAST AFTER THE CENTER CROSSES THE COASTLINE. ALEX IS A LARGE CYCLONE AND HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 70 MILES...110 KM...FROM THE CENTER...AND TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 205 MILES...335 KM PRIMARILY TO THE NORTHEAST OF THE CENTER. A MEXICAN NAVY AUTOMATED STATION IN MATAMOROS JUST REPORTED A WIND GUST OF 64 MPH...103 KM/HR. LATEST MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE REPORTED BY AN AIR FORCE RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT WAS 959 MB...28.32 INCHES. HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- RAINFALL...ALEX IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE TOTAL RAINFALL ACCUMULATIONS OF 6 TO 12 INCHES OVER PORTIONS OF NORTHEASTERN MEXICO AND SOUTHERN TEXAS...WITH ISOLATED MAXIMUM AMOUNTS OF 20 INCHES. THESE RAINS COULD CAUSE LIFE-THREATENING FLASH FLOODS AND MUD SLIDES... ESPECIALLY IN MOUNTAINOUS TERRAIN. THE BROWNSVILLE DOPPLER RADAR SHOWS NUMEROUS RAINBANDS ASSOCIATED WITH ALEX AFFECTING THE SOUTHERN TEXAS AND NORTHEASTERN MEXICO COASTS. WIND...HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO REACH THE COAST WITHIN THE HURRICANE WARNING AREA TONIGHT. HOWEVER...TROPICAL STORM WINDS ARE ALREADY AFFECTING PORTIONS OF THE COAST. STORM SURGE...A DANGEROUS STORM TIDE WILL RAISE WATER LEVELS BY AS MUCH AS 4 TO 6 FEET ABOVE GROUND LEVEL ALONG THE IMMEDIATE COAST TO THE NORTH OF WHERE THE CENTER MAKES LANDFALL. THE WATER COULD PENETRATE INLAND AS FAR AS SEVERAL MILES FROM THE SHORE WITH DEPTH GENERALLY DECREASING AS THE STORM TIDE MOVES INLAND. NEAR THE COAST...THE SURGE WILL BE ACCOMPANIED BY LARGE AND DESTRUCTIVE WAVES. TORNADOES...ISOLATED TORNADOES ARE POSSIBLE OVER PORTIONS OF EXTREME SOUTHERN TEXAS TONIGHT. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- NEXT INTERMEDIATE ADVISORIES...600 PM CDT AND 800 PM CDT. NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY...1000 PM CDT. $$ FORECASTER AVILA |
