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| #356653 (Received by flhurricane at: 5:03 AM 01.Jul.2010) TCDAT1 HURRICANE ALEX DISCUSSION NUMBER 23 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL012010 400 AM CDT THU JUL 01 2010 ALEX IS STILL MAINTAINING DEEP CONVECTION NEAR THE CENTER AND IN A LARGE CURVED RAINBAND ALONG THE COAST OF MEXICO. HOWEVER... SATELLITE IMAGERY AND DATA FROM THE BROWNSVILLE DOPPLER RADAR SUGGEST THAT ALEX HAS WEAKENED...WITH THE EYE BECOMING LESS DISTINCT AND THE CONVECTIVE TOPS WARMING AND BECOMING LESS SYMMETRIC AND OVER THE PAST FEW HOURS. THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS LOWERED TO 70 KT FOR THIS ADVISORY...AND ALEX WILL CONTINUE WEAKENING AS IT MOVES FARTHER INLAND. THE LOW-LEVEL CENTER WILL LIKELY DISSIPATE IN THE NEXT 24 TO 36 HOURS AS IT MOVES INTO THE SIERRA MADRE ORIENTAL MOUNTAINS. THE INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS A LITTLE SOUTH OF DUE WEST...260/10. A STRENGTHENING MID- AND UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE OVER THE CENTRAL UNITED STATES WILL CONTINUE TO STEER ALEX GENERALLY WESTWARD UNTIL DISSIPATION. BEYOND THAT TIME...MOST OF THE GLOBAL MODELS SHOW THE MID-LEVEL REMNANTS OF ALEX SPLITTING...WITH ONE PART MOVING WESTWARD ACROSS CENTRAL MEXICO...AND ANOTHER PORTION RECURVING NORTHWARD INTO NORTHERN MEXICO AND THE SOUTHERN PLAINS OF THE U.S. AHEAD OF AN AMPLIFYING MID-LATITUDE TROUGH. THESE REMNANTS...ALONG WITH AN ACCOMPANYING SURGE OF MOISTURE...WILL LIKELY MAINTAIN A HEAVY RAINFALL THREAT IN NORTHERN MEXICO AND PORTIONS OF THE SOUTH- CENTRAL U.S. AFTER THE SURFACE CENTER OF ALEX DISSIPATES. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INITIAL 01/0900Z 24.0N 99.0W 70 KT 12HR VT 01/1800Z 23.9N 100.5W 40 KT...INLAND 24HR VT 02/0600Z 24.1N 102.7W 25 KT...INLAND 36HR VT 02/1800Z...DISSIPATED $$ FORECASTER BRENNAN |
